feat(metrics): provenance as standard — pick_kind for all system mixes

The #1249 mechanism (stamp WHY a track is in the snapshot at build
time, freeze it onto the play at ingestion, break it down in metrics)
generalizes from a For You one-off to the standard for every system
mix (#1270):

- Migration 0039 widens both pick_kind CHECKs (drop + re-add in the
  same change) to taste/fresh + Discover's dormant/cross_user/random
  + tier1-3 for the rule-#131 eligibility ladders.
- GetForYouPickKindForTrack becomes GetSystemPickKindForTrack
  (user, variant, track); ingestion stamps any systemPlaylistSources
  play from its own variant's live snapshot, live + offline paths.
- Discover stamps its candidate bucket on discoverTrack before the
  interleave, making the 40/30/30 allocation measurable; dedup keeps
  the taking bucket's stamp.
- Metrics replace the for_you special-case with one pick-kind
  vocabulary — any family with attributed plays gets a breakdown,
  future stamping mixes need no metrics change.
- Web: breakdown sub-rows are now toggled per surface (collapsed by
  default) so eight stamping mixes don't swamp the card.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01TsF3cNoKrqCYsU78cXC8U6

internal/api/me_recommendation_metrics.go

@@ -39,10 +39,12 @@ type surfaceMetric struct {
 	SkipRate      float64 `json:"skip_rate"`      // skips / plays, [0,1]
 	AvgCompletion float64 `json:"avg_completion"` // mean completion ratio, [0,1]
 	LowConfidence bool    `json:"low_confidence"` // plays < recMetricsLowVolume
-	// Breakdown splits the family into sub-populations. Only For You
-	// carries one (#1249): taste picks vs fresh picks (the deliberate
-	// freshness injection), plus earlier plays that predate attribution.
-	// The parent row remains the sum of its breakdown.
+	// Breakdown splits the family into the pick-kind populations its
+	// builder stamped (#1249, generalized #1270): For You's taste/fresh,
+	// Discover's buckets, tier1-3 for tiered mixes — plus earlier plays
+	// that predate attribution. Present only when the family has at
+	// least one attributed play; the parent row remains the sum of its
+	// breakdown.
 	Breakdown []surfaceMetric `json:"breakdown,omitempty"`
 }
 
@@ -168,22 +170,50 @@ func (h *handlers) handleGetRecommendationMetrics(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http
 	writeJSON(w, http.StatusOK, bucketMetricsResponse(days, rows))
 }
 
-// forYouPickFamilies defines the For You breakdown rows (#1249), keyed
-// by play_events.pick_kind. "" (NULL pick_kind) = plays recorded before
-// attribution shipped, or whose track had already rotated out of the
-// snapshot at ingestion — kept visible so the parent row's sums stay
-// transparent instead of silently shrinking.
-var forYouPickFamilies = map[string]recFamily{
-	"taste": {"for_you_taste", "Taste picks", intentGoTo},
-	"fresh": {"for_you_fresh", "Fresh picks", intentGoTo},
-	"":      {"for_you_unattributed", "Earlier plays", intentGoTo},
+// pickKindLabels is the display vocabulary for play_events.pick_kind
+// values (mirrors the CHECK in migration 0039). Every system mix that
+// stamps provenance gets its breakdown from this one map — adding a
+// stamping mix needs no metrics change.
+var pickKindLabels = map[string]string{
+	"taste":      "Taste picks",
+	"fresh":      "Fresh picks",
+	"dormant":    "Dormant artists",
+	"cross_user": "Liked by others",
+	"random":     "Random unheard",
+	"tier1":      "Tier 1 (exact)",
+	"tier2":      "Tier 2 (relaxed)",
+	"tier3":      "Tier 3 (stretched)",
 }
 
-// forYouBreakdown folds pick-kind accums into the parent metric's
-// Breakdown. Attached only when at least one attributed (taste/fresh)
-// play exists — an all-unattributed breakdown would just repeat the
-// parent row.
-func forYouBreakdown(picks map[string]*familyAccum) []surfaceMetric {
+// pickKindOrder fixes breakdown row order; unattributed ("", i.e. NULL
+// pick_kind — plays recorded before the mix stamped provenance, or
+// whose track had rotated out of the snapshot at ingestion) renders
+// last, kept visible so the parent row's sums stay transparent instead
+// of silently shrinking. The DB CHECK gates pick_kind to exactly this
+// vocabulary, so iterating the list is exhaustive.
+var pickKindOrder = []string{
+	"taste", "fresh", "dormant", "cross_user", "random",
+	"tier1", "tier2", "tier3", "",
+}
+
+// pickKindFamily derives the sub-family for one (family, pick_kind)
+// population, e.g. ("for_you", "taste") → for_you_taste "Taste picks".
+func pickKindFamily(parent recFamily, kind string) recFamily {
+	if kind == "" {
+		return recFamily{parent.key + "_unattributed", "Earlier plays", parent.intent}
+	}
+	label, ok := pickKindLabels[kind]
+	if !ok {
+		label = kind
+	}
+	return recFamily{parent.key + "_" + kind, label, parent.intent}
+}
+
+// pickKindBreakdown folds a family's per-pick-kind accums into its
+// Breakdown rows. Attached only when at least one attributed play
+// exists — an all-unattributed breakdown would just repeat the parent
+// row, and families that never stamp (radio, direct plays) stay flat.
+func pickKindBreakdown(picks map[string]*familyAccum) []surfaceMetric {
 	attributed := int64(0)
 	for kind, acc := range picks {
 		if kind != "" {
@@ -194,7 +224,7 @@ func forYouBreakdown(picks map[string]*familyAccum) []surfaceMetric {
 		return nil
 	}
 	out := make([]surfaceMetric, 0, len(picks))
-	for _, kind := range []string{"taste", "fresh", ""} {
+	for _, kind := range pickKindOrder {
 		if acc, ok := picks[kind]; ok && acc.plays > 0 {
 			out = append(out, acc.metric())
 		}
@@ -210,7 +240,7 @@ func bucketMetricsResponse(
 ) recommendationMetricsResp {
 	baseline := &familyAccum{fam: recFamily{"manual", "Manual library plays", ""}}
 	families := map[string]*familyAccum{}
-	forYouPicks := map[string]*familyAccum{}
+	picks := map[string]map[string]*familyAccum{}
 	for _, row := range rows {
 		if row.Source == nil || *row.Source == "" {
 			baseline.add(row)
@@ -223,18 +253,23 @@ func bucketMetricsResponse(
 			families[fam.key] = acc
 		}
 		acc.add(row)
-		if fam.key == "for_you" {
-			kind := ""
-			if row.PickKind != nil {
-				kind = *row.PickKind
-			}
-			pick, ok := forYouPicks[kind]
-			if !ok {
-				pick = &familyAccum{fam: forYouPickFamilies[kind]}
-				forYouPicks[kind] = pick
-			}
-			pick.add(row)
+		// Accumulate the pick-kind population unconditionally; families
+		// that never stamp end up all-unattributed and get no breakdown.
+		kind := ""
+		if row.PickKind != nil {
+			kind = *row.PickKind
 		}
+		byKind, ok := picks[fam.key]
+		if !ok {
+			byKind = map[string]*familyAccum{}
+			picks[fam.key] = byKind
+		}
+		pick, ok := byKind[kind]
+		if !ok {
+			pick = &familyAccum{fam: pickKindFamily(fam, kind)}
+			byKind[kind] = pick
+		}
+		pick.add(row)
 	}
 
 	resp := recommendationMetricsResp{WindowDays: days, Groups: []surfaceGroup{}}
@@ -251,9 +286,7 @@ func bucketMetricsResponse(
 		for _, acc := range families {
 			if acc.fam.intent == g.intent {
 				m := acc.metric()
-				if acc.fam.key == "for_you" {
-					m.Breakdown = forYouBreakdown(forYouPicks)
-				}
+				m.Breakdown = pickKindBreakdown(picks[acc.fam.key])
 				group.Surfaces = append(group.Surfaces, m)
 			}
 		}

internal/api/me_recommendation_metrics_test.go

@@ -168,6 +168,48 @@ func TestBucketMetricsResponse_ForYouBreakdown(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
+func TestBucketMetricsResponse_DiscoverBucketBreakdown(t *testing.T) {
+	// Provenance is standard (#1270): Discover's bucket stamps surface as
+	// a breakdown exactly like For You's taste/fresh — this is what makes
+	// the 40/30/30 allocation judgeable instead of a guess.
+	src := func(s string) *string { return &s }
+	kind := func(s string) *string { return &s }
+	rows := []dbq.RecommendationSourceMetricsForUserRow{
+		{Source: src("discover"), PickKind: kind("dormant"), Plays: 8, Skips: 2,
+			CompletionN: 8, AvgCompletion: 0.8},
+		{Source: src("discover"), PickKind: kind("cross_user"), Plays: 6, Skips: 3,
+			CompletionN: 6, AvgCompletion: 0.6},
+		{Source: src("discover"), PickKind: kind("random"), Plays: 4, Skips: 3,
+			CompletionN: 4, AvgCompletion: 0.4},
+		// NULL pick_kind = plays that predate bucket stamping.
+		{Source: src("discover"), Plays: 2, Skips: 0, CompletionN: 2, AvgCompletion: 0.9},
+	}
+	resp := bucketMetricsResponse(recMetricsDefaultDays, rows)
+
+	d := findSurface(resp, "discover")
+	if d == nil {
+		t.Fatal("discover family missing")
+	}
+	if d.Plays != 20 || d.Skips != 8 {
+		t.Errorf("discover plays/skips = %d/%d, want 20/8", d.Plays, d.Skips)
+	}
+	wantKeys := []string{
+		"discover_dormant", "discover_cross_user", "discover_random",
+		"discover_unattributed",
+	}
+	if len(d.Breakdown) != len(wantKeys) {
+		t.Fatalf("breakdown rows = %d, want %d", len(d.Breakdown), len(wantKeys))
+	}
+	for i, k := range wantKeys {
+		if d.Breakdown[i].Key != k {
+			t.Errorf("breakdown[%d].key = %s, want %s", i, d.Breakdown[i].Key, k)
+		}
+	}
+	if b := d.Breakdown[0]; b.Label != "Dormant artists" || b.Plays != 8 {
+		t.Errorf("dormant row = %+v, want label=Dormant artists plays=8", b)
+	}
+}
+
 func TestRecommendationMetrics_BucketsWithBaseline(t *testing.T) {
 	if os.Getenv("MINSTREL_TEST_DATABASE_URL") == "" {
 		t.Skip("MINSTREL_TEST_DATABASE_URL not set")

internal/db/dbq/events.sql.go

@@ -31,33 +31,6 @@ func (q *Queries) GetCurrentSessionVectorForUser(ctx context.Context, userID pgt
 	return session_vector_at_play, err
 }
 
-const getForYouPickKindForTrack = `-- name: GetForYouPickKindForTrack :one
-SELECT pt.pick_kind
-FROM playlist_tracks pt
-JOIN playlists p ON p.id = pt.playlist_id
-WHERE p.user_id = $1
-  AND p.system_variant = 'for_you'
-  AND pt.track_id = $2
-LIMIT 1
-`
-
-type GetForYouPickKindForTrackParams struct {
-	UserID  pgtype.UUID
-	TrackID pgtype.UUID
-}
-
-// Looks a track up in the user's CURRENT For You snapshot and returns
-// its pick_kind ('taste'/'fresh'). Used at play-ingestion time to
-// freeze exploration attribution onto the play_event — the snapshot is
-// rebuilt daily, so attribution can't be reconstructed at read time
-// (#1249). No row = track not in today's snapshot (caller stores NULL).
-func (q *Queries) GetForYouPickKindForTrack(ctx context.Context, arg GetForYouPickKindForTrackParams) (*string, error) {
-	row := q.db.QueryRow(ctx, getForYouPickKindForTrack, arg.UserID, arg.TrackID)
-	var pick_kind *string
-	err := row.Scan(&pick_kind)
-	return pick_kind, err
-}
-
 const getMostRecentPlaySessionForUser = `-- name: GetMostRecentPlaySessionForUser :one
 SELECT id, user_id, started_at, ended_at, last_event_at, track_count, client_id FROM play_sessions
 WHERE user_id = $1
@@ -137,6 +110,38 @@ func (q *Queries) GetPlayEventByID(ctx context.Context, id pgtype.UUID) (PlayEve
 	return i, err
 }
 
+const getSystemPickKindForTrack = `-- name: GetSystemPickKindForTrack :one
+SELECT pt.pick_kind
+FROM playlist_tracks pt
+JOIN playlists p ON p.id = pt.playlist_id
+WHERE p.user_id = $1
+  AND p.system_variant = $2
+  AND pt.track_id = $3
+LIMIT 1
+`
+
+type GetSystemPickKindForTrackParams struct {
+	UserID        pgtype.UUID
+	SystemVariant *string
+	TrackID       pgtype.UUID
+}
+
+// Looks a track up in the user's CURRENT snapshot of the given system
+// variant and returns its pick_kind. Used at play-ingestion time to
+// freeze provenance onto the play_event — snapshots rebuild daily, so
+// attribution can't be reconstructed at read time (#1249/#1270). No
+// row = track not in today's snapshot (caller stores NULL); a row with
+// NULL pick_kind = the variant doesn't stamp (yet). songs_like_artist
+// is non-singleton (up to 3 mixes/user); a track in two of them takes
+// whichever LIMIT 1 hits — acceptable, tier stamps there describe the
+// same eligibility ladder.
+func (q *Queries) GetSystemPickKindForTrack(ctx context.Context, arg GetSystemPickKindForTrackParams) (*string, error) {
+	row := q.db.QueryRow(ctx, getSystemPickKindForTrack, arg.UserID, arg.SystemVariant, arg.TrackID)
+	var pick_kind *string
+	err := row.Scan(&pick_kind)
+	return pick_kind, err
+}
+
 const insertPlayEvent = `-- name: InsertPlayEvent :one
 INSERT INTO play_events (
     user_id, track_id, session_id, started_at, client_id, source, pick_kind
@@ -154,8 +159,9 @@ type InsertPlayEventParams struct {
 	PickKind  *string
 }
 
-// pick_kind is non-NULL only for source='for_you' plays whose track was
-// found in the user's live For You snapshot at ingestion time (#1249).
+// pick_kind is non-NULL only for system-playlist plays whose track was
+// found (with a stamped kind) in the user's live snapshot for that
+// variant at ingestion time (#1249, generalized in #1270).
 func (q *Queries) InsertPlayEvent(ctx context.Context, arg InsertPlayEventParams) (PlayEvent, error) {
 	row := q.db.QueryRow(ctx, insertPlayEvent,
 		arg.UserID,

internal/db/migrations/0039_pick_kind_vocabulary.down.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
+-- Rows stamped with the widened vocabulary must be cleared before the
+-- narrow CHECK can be re-added; NULL reads as "unattributed", which is
+-- the honest downgrade.
+UPDATE play_events SET pick_kind = NULL
+    WHERE pick_kind NOT IN ('taste', 'fresh');
+UPDATE playlist_tracks SET pick_kind = NULL
+    WHERE pick_kind NOT IN ('taste', 'fresh');
+
+ALTER TABLE play_events
+    DROP CONSTRAINT play_events_pick_kind_check;
+ALTER TABLE play_events
+    ADD CONSTRAINT play_events_pick_kind_check
+        CHECK (pick_kind IN ('taste', 'fresh'));
+
+ALTER TABLE playlist_tracks
+    DROP CONSTRAINT playlist_tracks_pick_kind_check;
+ALTER TABLE playlist_tracks
+    ADD CONSTRAINT playlist_tracks_pick_kind_check
+        CHECK (pick_kind IN ('taste', 'fresh'));

internal/db/migrations/0039_pick_kind_vocabulary.up.sql

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+-- Provenance as standard (milestone #127, Scribe #1270).
+--
+-- #1249 introduced pick_kind as a For You one-off ('taste'/'fresh').
+-- The mechanism — stamp WHY a track is in the snapshot at build time,
+-- freeze it onto the play at ingestion, break it down in metrics — is
+-- now the standard for every system mix, so the CHECK vocabulary
+-- widens to cover:
+--
+--   taste / fresh          For You head vs freshness-injection tail
+--   dormant / cross_user / random
+--                          Discover's three candidate buckets — makes
+--                          the 40/30/30 allocation measurable instead
+--                          of a guess
+--   tier1 / tier2 / tier3  the tiered-eligibility ladder (project rule
+--                          #131): tier 1 pins the mix's exact desire,
+--                          each higher tier steps back a little. Tier
+--                          provenance is how we measure what the
+--                          step-back trades away.
+--
+-- Postgres CHECK whitelists can't be altered in place: DROP + re-ADD
+-- with the expanded list, in the same migration.
+
+ALTER TABLE playlist_tracks
+    DROP CONSTRAINT playlist_tracks_pick_kind_check;
+ALTER TABLE playlist_tracks
+    ADD CONSTRAINT playlist_tracks_pick_kind_check
+        CHECK (pick_kind IN (
+            'taste', 'fresh',
+            'dormant', 'cross_user', 'random',
+            'tier1', 'tier2', 'tier3'
+        ));
+
+ALTER TABLE play_events
+    DROP CONSTRAINT play_events_pick_kind_check;
+ALTER TABLE play_events
+    ADD CONSTRAINT play_events_pick_kind_check
+        CHECK (pick_kind IN (
+            'taste', 'fresh',
+            'dormant', 'cross_user', 'random',
+            'tier1', 'tier2', 'tier3'
+        ));

internal/db/queries/events.sql

@@ -24,25 +24,30 @@ ORDER BY started_at DESC
 LIMIT 1;
 
 -- name: InsertPlayEvent :one
--- pick_kind is non-NULL only for source='for_you' plays whose track was
--- found in the user's live For You snapshot at ingestion time (#1249).
+-- pick_kind is non-NULL only for system-playlist plays whose track was
+-- found (with a stamped kind) in the user's live snapshot for that
+-- variant at ingestion time (#1249, generalized in #1270).
 INSERT INTO play_events (
     user_id, track_id, session_id, started_at, client_id, source, pick_kind
 ) VALUES ($1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, sqlc.narg(pick_kind)::text)
 RETURNING *;
 
--- name: GetForYouPickKindForTrack :one
--- Looks a track up in the user's CURRENT For You snapshot and returns
--- its pick_kind ('taste'/'fresh'). Used at play-ingestion time to
--- freeze exploration attribution onto the play_event — the snapshot is
--- rebuilt daily, so attribution can't be reconstructed at read time
--- (#1249). No row = track not in today's snapshot (caller stores NULL).
+-- name: GetSystemPickKindForTrack :one
+-- Looks a track up in the user's CURRENT snapshot of the given system
+-- variant and returns its pick_kind. Used at play-ingestion time to
+-- freeze provenance onto the play_event — snapshots rebuild daily, so
+-- attribution can't be reconstructed at read time (#1249/#1270). No
+-- row = track not in today's snapshot (caller stores NULL); a row with
+-- NULL pick_kind = the variant doesn't stamp (yet). songs_like_artist
+-- is non-singleton (up to 3 mixes/user); a track in two of them takes
+-- whichever LIMIT 1 hits — acceptable, tier stamps there describe the
+-- same eligibility ladder.
 SELECT pt.pick_kind
 FROM playlist_tracks pt
 JOIN playlists p ON p.id = pt.playlist_id
 WHERE p.user_id = $1
-  AND p.system_variant = 'for_you'
-  AND pt.track_id = $2
+  AND p.system_variant = $2
+  AND pt.track_id = $3
 LIMIT 1;
 
 -- name: UpdatePlayEventEnded :one

internal/playevents/writer.go

@@ -97,25 +97,26 @@ var systemPlaylistSources = map[string]bool{
 	"songs_like_artist": true,
 }
 
-// sourceForYou is the one source whose plays carry exploration
-// attribution (taste vs fresh pick, #1249).
-const sourceForYou = "for_you"
-
-// lookupForYouPickKind resolves a For-You play's pick_kind ('taste' or
-// 'fresh') from the user's live snapshot at ingestion time. Attribution
-// must be frozen now — the snapshot rebuilds daily, so it can't be
-// reconstructed at metrics-read time. Returns nil (unattributed) when
-// the track isn't in the current snapshot: plays predating the feature,
-// or an offline replay arriving after the track rotated out. Real DB
+// lookupSystemPickKind resolves a system-playlist play's pick_kind
+// (taste/fresh, Discover's bucket, or a rule-#131 tier) from the user's
+// live snapshot of that variant at ingestion time. Attribution must be
+// frozen now — snapshots rebuild daily, so it can't be reconstructed at
+// metrics-read time (#1249, generalized in #1270). Source strings
+// double as system_variant values (see systemPlaylistSources). Returns
+// nil (unattributed) when the track isn't in the current snapshot —
+// plays predating the feature, or an offline replay arriving after the
+// track rotated out — and when the variant doesn't stamp yet. Real DB
 // errors propagate and fail the caller's transaction.
-func lookupForYouPickKind(
+func lookupSystemPickKind(
 	ctx context.Context,
 	q *dbq.Queries,
 	userID, trackID pgtype.UUID,
+	variant string,
 ) (*string, error) {
-	kind, err := q.GetForYouPickKindForTrack(ctx, dbq.GetForYouPickKindForTrackParams{
-		UserID:  userID,
-		TrackID: trackID,
+	kind, err := q.GetSystemPickKindForTrack(ctx, dbq.GetSystemPickKindForTrackParams{
+		UserID:        userID,
+		SystemVariant: &variant,
+		TrackID:       trackID,
 	})
 	if errors.Is(err, pgx.ErrNoRows) {
 		return nil, nil
@@ -157,8 +158,8 @@ func (w *Writer) RecordPlayStartedWithSource(
 			sourcePtr = &source
 		}
 		var pickKind *string
-		if source == sourceForYou {
-			pickKind, err = lookupForYouPickKind(ctx, q, userID, trackID)
+		if systemPlaylistSources[source] {
+			pickKind, err = lookupSystemPickKind(ctx, q, userID, trackID, source)
 			if err != nil {
 				return err
 			}
@@ -433,8 +434,8 @@ func (w *Writer) RecordOfflinePlay(
 			sourcePtr = &source
 		}
 		var pickKind *string
-		if source == sourceForYou {
-			pickKind, err = lookupForYouPickKind(ctx, q, userID, trackID)
+		if systemPlaylistSources[source] {
+			pickKind, err = lookupSystemPickKind(ctx, q, userID, trackID, source)
 			if err != nil {
 				return err
 			}

internal/playevents/writer_test.go

@@ -489,14 +489,13 @@ func TestRecordPlayStarted_NoRotationWithoutSource(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
-// seedForYouSnapshot creates a system For You playlist containing the
-// fixture track with the given pick_kind, mimicking what the builder
-// persists (#1249).
-func seedForYouSnapshot(t *testing.T, f fixture, pickKind string) {
+// seedSystemSnapshot creates a system playlist of the given variant
+// containing the fixture track with the given pick_kind, mimicking
+// what the builder persists (#1249, generalized #1270).
+func seedSystemSnapshot(t *testing.T, f fixture, variant, pickKind string) {
 	t.Helper()
-	variant := "for_you"
 	pl, err := f.q.CreateSystemPlaylist(context.Background(), dbq.CreateSystemPlaylistParams{
-		UserID: f.user, Name: "For You", SystemVariant: &variant,
+		UserID: f.user, Name: variant, SystemVariant: &variant,
 	})
 	if err != nil {
 		t.Fatalf("CreateSystemPlaylist: %v", err)
@@ -510,7 +509,7 @@ func seedForYouSnapshot(t *testing.T, f fixture, pickKind string) {
 
 func TestRecordPlayStartedWithSource_StampsForYouPickKind(t *testing.T) {
 	f := newFixture(t, 200_000)
-	seedForYouSnapshot(t, f, "fresh")
+	seedSystemSnapshot(t, f, "for_you", "fresh")
 	res, err := f.w.RecordPlayStartedWithSource(
 		context.Background(), f.user, f.track, "c", "for_you", time.Now().UTC(),
 	)
@@ -545,11 +544,13 @@ func TestRecordPlayStartedWithSource_NoSnapshotMatch_PickKindNull(t *testing.T)
 	}
 }
 
-func TestRecordPlayStartedWithSource_NonForYouSource_PickKindNull(t *testing.T) {
-	// Even with a For You snapshot containing the track, a play from a
-	// different surface must not pick up For You attribution.
+func TestRecordPlayStartedWithSource_CrossVariant_PickKindNull(t *testing.T) {
+	// Attribution is variant-scoped: even with a For You snapshot
+	// containing the track, a play from a different surface must not
+	// pick up For You's stamp — it reads its OWN variant's snapshot,
+	// which here doesn't exist.
 	f := newFixture(t, 200_000)
-	seedForYouSnapshot(t, f, "taste")
+	seedSystemSnapshot(t, f, "for_you", "taste")
 	res, err := f.w.RecordPlayStartedWithSource(
 		context.Background(), f.user, f.track, "c", "discover", time.Now().UTC(),
 	)
@@ -561,7 +562,27 @@ func TestRecordPlayStartedWithSource_NonForYouSource_PickKindNull(t *testing.T)
 		t.Fatalf("get: %v", err)
 	}
 	if got.PickKind != nil {
-		t.Errorf("pick_kind = %q, want NULL for non-for_you source", *got.PickKind)
+		t.Errorf("pick_kind = %q, want NULL for a cross-variant play", *got.PickKind)
+	}
+}
+
+func TestRecordPlayStartedWithSource_StampsDiscoverBucket(t *testing.T) {
+	// Discover stamps its candidate bucket (#1270); a discover play whose
+	// track is in the live snapshot freezes that bucket onto the play.
+	f := newFixture(t, 200_000)
+	seedSystemSnapshot(t, f, "discover", "dormant")
+	res, err := f.w.RecordPlayStartedWithSource(
+		context.Background(), f.user, f.track, "c", "discover", time.Now().UTC(),
+	)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("RecordPlayStartedWithSource: %v", err)
+	}
+	got, err := f.q.GetPlayEventByID(context.Background(), res.PlayEventID)
+	if err != nil {
+		t.Fatalf("get: %v", err)
+	}
+	if got.PickKind == nil || *got.PickKind != "dormant" {
+		t.Errorf("pick_kind = %v, want dormant (frozen from live snapshot)", got.PickKind)
 	}
 }
 
@@ -569,7 +590,7 @@ func TestRecordOfflinePlay_StampsForYouPickKind(t *testing.T) {
 	// The offline replay path threads source the same way; a replayed
 	// for_you play whose track is still in the snapshot gets attributed.
 	f := newFixture(t, 200_000)
-	seedForYouSnapshot(t, f, "taste")
+	seedSystemSnapshot(t, f, "for_you", "taste")
 	at := time.Now().UTC().Add(-time.Hour)
 	if err := f.w.RecordOfflinePlay(
 		context.Background(), f.user, f.track, "c", "for_you", at, 180_000,

internal/playlists/discover.go

@@ -20,11 +20,15 @@ const (
 
 // discoverTrack is the common shape used by the bucket allocator. The
 // three sqlc-generated row types collapse into this internal struct so
-// downstream functions don't need to be generic over them.
+// downstream functions don't need to be generic over them. PickKind is
+// the originating bucket (dormant/cross_user/random, #1270), stamped in
+// the row adapters so it survives the interleave — bucket identity is
+// what makes the 40/30/30 allocation measurable in the metrics.
 type discoverTrack struct {
 	ID       pgtype.UUID
 	AlbumID  pgtype.UUID
 	ArtistID pgtype.UUID
+	PickKind string
 }
 
 // buildDiscoverCandidates assembles the Discover playlist track list.
@@ -91,7 +95,7 @@ func buildDiscoverCandidates(ctx context.Context, q *dbq.Queries, logger *slog.L
 	// already gave us the ranking.
 	ranked := make([]rankedCandidate, 0, len(out))
 	for _, t := range out {
-		ranked = append(ranked, rankedCandidate{TrackID: t.ID})
+		ranked = append(ranked, rankedCandidate{TrackID: t.ID, PickKind: t.PickKind})
 	}
 	return ranked, nil
 }
@@ -99,7 +103,10 @@ func buildDiscoverCandidates(ctx context.Context, q *dbq.Queries, logger *slog.L
 func dormantRowsToTracks(rows []dbq.ListDormantArtistTracksForDiscoverRow) []discoverTrack {
 	out := make([]discoverTrack, len(rows))
 	for i, r := range rows {
-		out[i] = discoverTrack{ID: r.ID, AlbumID: r.AlbumID, ArtistID: r.ArtistID}
+		out[i] = discoverTrack{
+			ID: r.ID, AlbumID: r.AlbumID, ArtistID: r.ArtistID,
+			PickKind: pickKindDormant,
+		}
 	}
 	return out
 }
@@ -107,7 +114,10 @@ func dormantRowsToTracks(rows []dbq.ListDormantArtistTracksForDiscoverRow) []dis
 func crossUserRowsToTracks(rows []dbq.ListCrossUserLikedTracksForDiscoverRow) []discoverTrack {
 	out := make([]discoverTrack, len(rows))
 	for i, r := range rows {
-		out[i] = discoverTrack{ID: r.ID, AlbumID: r.AlbumID, ArtistID: r.ArtistID}
+		out[i] = discoverTrack{
+			ID: r.ID, AlbumID: r.AlbumID, ArtistID: r.ArtistID,
+			PickKind: pickKindCrossUser,
+		}
 	}
 	return out
 }
@@ -115,7 +125,10 @@ func crossUserRowsToTracks(rows []dbq.ListCrossUserLikedTracksForDiscoverRow) []
 func randomRowsToTracks(rows []dbq.ListRandomUnheardTracksForDiscoverRow) []discoverTrack {
 	out := make([]discoverTrack, len(rows))
 	for i, r := range rows {
-		out[i] = discoverTrack{ID: r.ID, AlbumID: r.AlbumID, ArtistID: r.ArtistID}
+		out[i] = discoverTrack{
+			ID: r.ID, AlbumID: r.AlbumID, ArtistID: r.ArtistID,
+			PickKind: pickKindRandom,
+		}
 	}
 	return out
 }

internal/playlists/discover_test.go

@@ -161,3 +161,27 @@ func TestInterleaveBuckets_DedupsAcrossBuckets(t *testing.T) {
 		}
 	}
 }
+
+func TestInterleaveBuckets_PreservesBucketPickKind(t *testing.T) {
+	// Bucket provenance (#1270) is stamped on discoverTrack before the
+	// interleave and must survive it — including dedup, where a track in
+	// two buckets keeps the stamp of the bucket it was taken from.
+	dormant := []discoverTrack{
+		{ID: uuidN(1), PickKind: pickKindDormant},
+		{ID: uuidN(2), PickKind: pickKindDormant},
+	}
+	random := []discoverTrack{
+		{ID: uuidN(1), PickKind: pickKindRandom}, // shared with dormant
+		{ID: uuidN(3), PickKind: pickKindRandom},
+	}
+	got := interleaveBuckets(dormant, nil, random)
+	if len(got) != 3 {
+		t.Fatalf("len = %d, want 3", len(got))
+	}
+	want := map[byte]string{1: pickKindDormant, 2: pickKindDormant, 3: pickKindRandom}
+	for _, tr := range got {
+		if w := want[tr.ID.Bytes[15]]; tr.PickKind != w {
+			t.Errorf("track %d pick_kind = %q, want %q", tr.ID.Bytes[15], tr.PickKind, w)
+		}
+	}
+}

internal/playlists/system.go

@@ -127,20 +127,26 @@ func pickSeedArtistsForDay(pool []pgtype.UUID, userID pgtype.UUID, dateStr strin
 
 // rankedCandidate is a (track_id, score) pair used during in-memory
 // sorting before insert into playlist_tracks. T5 fills these from
-// recommendation.Candidate scores. PickKind is set only by For-You's
-// head/tail composition (#1249); empty persists as NULL.
+// recommendation.Candidate scores. PickKind is the track's provenance
+// within its mix — For-You's head/tail split (#1249) and Discover's
+// buckets (#1270); empty persists as NULL (variant doesn't stamp yet).
 type rankedCandidate struct {
 	TrackID  pgtype.UUID
 	Score    float64
 	PickKind string
 }
 
-// For-You pick kinds, persisted on playlist_tracks.pick_kind so plays
-// can attribute skips to "the taste engine missing" vs "the freshness
-// tax" (#1249). Values mirror the CHECK in migration 0038.
+// Pick kinds, persisted on playlist_tracks.pick_kind so plays can
+// attribute skips to the population that sourced the track — For You's
+// "taste engine missing" vs "freshness tax", Discover's three buckets
+// (#1270). Values mirror the CHECK in migration 0039; the tier1-3
+// values there land with the tiered-mix rebuilds.
 const (
-	pickKindTaste = "taste"
-	pickKindFresh = "fresh"
+	pickKindTaste     = "taste"
+	pickKindFresh     = "fresh"
+	pickKindDormant   = "dormant"
+	pickKindCrossUser = "cross_user"
+	pickKindRandom    = "random"
 )
 
 const systemMixLength = 25

web/src/lib/api/metrics.ts

@@ -12,8 +12,10 @@ export type SurfaceMetric = {
   skip_rate: number;
   avg_completion: number;
   low_confidence: boolean;
-  // Only For You carries a breakdown (#1249): taste picks vs fresh picks
-  // (the deliberate freshness injection), plus pre-attribution plays.
+  // Present when the surface's builder stamps pick-kind provenance and
+  // the window holds attributed plays (#1249, generalized #1270): For
+  // You's taste/fresh split, Discover's candidate buckets, the tiered
+  // mixes' tier1-3 — plus pre-attribution plays.
   breakdown?: SurfaceMetric[];
 };
 

web/src/routes/settings/+page.svelte

@@ -59,6 +59,18 @@
   function completionDeltaClass(m: SurfaceMetric, baseline: SurfaceMetric): string {
     return m.avg_completion < baseline.avg_completion ? 'text-danger' : 'text-text-secondary';
   }
+
+  // Pick-kind breakdowns are collapsed by default (#1270): with every
+  // system mix stamping provenance, always-open sub-rows would triple
+  // the table height and bury the surface-level comparison.
+  let expandedBreakdowns = $state(new Set<string>());
+
+  function toggleBreakdown(key: string) {
+    const next = new Set(expandedBreakdowns);
+    if (next.has(key)) next.delete(key);
+    else next.add(key);
+    expandedBreakdowns = next;
+  }
   const tokenMutation = createTokenMutation(queryClient);
   const enabledMutation = createEnabledMutation(queryClient);
 
@@ -352,7 +364,21 @@
                     : undefined}
                 >
                   <td class="py-1">
-                    {m.label}{#if m.low_confidence}<span class="ml-1 text-xs text-text-secondary">· low data</span>{/if}
+                    {#if (m.breakdown ?? []).length > 0}
+                      <button
+                        type="button"
+                        class="inline-flex items-center gap-1 rounded outline-none focus-visible:ring-1 focus-visible:ring-accent"
+                        aria-expanded={expandedBreakdowns.has(m.key)}
+                        onclick={() => toggleBreakdown(m.key)}
+                      >
+                        <span class="text-xs text-text-secondary" aria-hidden="true">
+                          {expandedBreakdowns.has(m.key) ? '▾' : '▸'}
+                        </span>
+                        {m.label}
+                      </button>
+                    {:else}
+                      {m.label}
+                    {/if}{#if m.low_confidence}<span class="ml-1 text-xs text-text-secondary">· low data</span>{/if}
                   </td>
                   <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">{m.plays}</td>
                   <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">
@@ -372,40 +398,44 @@
                     {/if}
                   </td>
                 </tr>
-                <!-- For You splits into taste picks vs the deliberate
-                     freshness injection (#1249) — the number that says
-                     whether skips come from the taste engine missing or
-                     from the exploration tax. -->
-                {#each m.breakdown ?? [] as b (b.key)}
-                  <tr
-                    class="border-t border-border/50 text-text-secondary"
-                    class:opacity-60={b.low_confidence}
-                    title={b.low_confidence
-                      ? 'Fewer than 20 plays — treat these rates as anecdote, not signal.'
-                      : undefined}
-                  >
-                    <td class="py-1 pl-4 text-xs">
-                      ↳ {b.label}{#if b.low_confidence}<span class="ml-1">· low data</span>{/if}
-                    </td>
-                    <td class="py-1 text-right text-xs tabular-nums">{b.plays}</td>
-                    <td class="py-1 text-right text-xs tabular-nums">
-                      {pct(b.skip_rate)}
-                      {#if baseline}
-                        <span class="ml-1 {skipDeltaClass(b, baseline)}">
-                          {deltaPts(b.skip_rate, baseline.skip_rate)}
-                        </span>
-                      {/if}
-                    </td>
-                    <td class="py-1 text-right text-xs tabular-nums">
-                      {pct(b.avg_completion)}
-                      {#if baseline}
-                        <span class="ml-1 {completionDeltaClass(b, baseline)}">
-                          {deltaPts(b.avg_completion, baseline.avg_completion)}
-                        </span>
-                      {/if}
-                    </td>
-                  </tr>
-                {/each}
+                <!-- Pick-kind provenance sub-rows (#1249/#1270): each
+                     surface splits into the populations its builder
+                     stamped — For You's taste vs freshness injection,
+                     Discover's buckets, the tiered mixes' tiers — the
+                     numbers that say WHERE a surface's skips come from.
+                     Toggled per surface to keep the default view flat. -->
+                {#if expandedBreakdowns.has(m.key)}
+                  {#each m.breakdown ?? [] as b (b.key)}
+                    <tr
+                      class="border-t border-border/50 text-text-secondary"
+                      class:opacity-60={b.low_confidence}
+                      title={b.low_confidence
+                        ? 'Fewer than 20 plays — treat these rates as anecdote, not signal.'
+                        : undefined}
+                    >
+                      <td class="py-1 pl-4 text-xs">
+                        ↳ {b.label}{#if b.low_confidence}<span class="ml-1">· low data</span>{/if}
+                      </td>
+                      <td class="py-1 text-right text-xs tabular-nums">{b.plays}</td>
+                      <td class="py-1 text-right text-xs tabular-nums">
+                        {pct(b.skip_rate)}
+                        {#if baseline}
+                          <span class="ml-1 {skipDeltaClass(b, baseline)}">
+                            {deltaPts(b.skip_rate, baseline.skip_rate)}
+                          </span>
+                        {/if}
+                      </td>
+                      <td class="py-1 text-right text-xs tabular-nums">
+                        {pct(b.avg_completion)}
+                        {#if baseline}
+                          <span class="ml-1 {completionDeltaClass(b, baseline)}">
+                            {deltaPts(b.avg_completion, baseline.avg_completion)}
+                          </span>
+                        {/if}
+                      </td>
+                    </tr>
+                  {/each}
+                {/if}
               {/each}
             </tbody>
           </table>

web/src/routes/settings/settings.test.ts

@@ -198,7 +198,7 @@ describe('Settings page — Recommendation metrics card', () => {
     ...over
   });
 
-  test('renders the For You taste/fresh breakdown rows (#1249)', async () => {
+  test('breakdown rows are collapsed by default and expand on toggle (#1249/#1270)', async () => {
     setupPage();
     metricsMock.data = {
       window_days: 30,
@@ -225,13 +225,23 @@ describe('Settings page — Recommendation metrics card', () => {
       ]
     };
     render(SettingsPage);
-    await waitFor(() => expect(screen.getByText('For You')).toBeInTheDocument());
+    const toggle = await screen.findByRole('button', { name: /for you/i });
+    // Collapsed by default: every stamping mix now carries a breakdown,
+    // so always-open sub-rows would swamp the surface-level view.
+    expect(toggle).toHaveAttribute('aria-expanded', 'false');
+    expect(screen.queryByText(/Taste picks/)).not.toBeInTheDocument();
+
+    await fireEvent.click(toggle);
+    expect(toggle).toHaveAttribute('aria-expanded', 'true');
     expect(screen.getByText(/Taste picks/)).toBeInTheDocument();
     expect(screen.getByText(/Fresh picks/)).toBeInTheDocument();
     expect(screen.getByText(/Earlier plays/)).toBeInTheDocument();
+
+    await fireEvent.click(toggle);
+    expect(screen.queryByText(/Taste picks/)).not.toBeInTheDocument();
   });
 
-  test('surfaces without a breakdown render no sub-rows', async () => {
+  test('surfaces without a breakdown render no toggle and no sub-rows', async () => {
     setupPage();
     metricsMock.data = {
       window_days: 30,
@@ -246,6 +256,7 @@ describe('Settings page — Recommendation metrics card', () => {
     };
     render(SettingsPage);
     await waitFor(() => expect(screen.getByText('Radio')).toBeInTheDocument());
+    expect(screen.queryByRole('button', { name: /radio/i })).not.toBeInTheDocument();
     expect(screen.queryByText(/Taste picks/)).not.toBeInTheDocument();
   });
 });