internal/api/me_recommendation_metrics.go

@@ -2,7 +2,9 @@ package api
 
 import (
 	"net/http"
+	"sort"
 	"strconv"
+	"strings"
 
 	"git.fabledsword.com/bvandeusen/minstrel/internal/apierror"
 	"git.fabledsword.com/bvandeusen/minstrel/internal/db/dbq"
@@ -11,28 +13,135 @@ import (
 const (
 	recMetricsDefaultDays = 30
 	recMetricsMaxDays     = 365
+
+	// recMetricsLowVolume marks a family as low-confidence rather than
+	// hiding it: with fewer plays than this a skip rate is anecdote, not
+	// signal, but silently dropping the row would misread as "surface
+	// unused". The web renders low-confidence rows dimmed.
+	recMetricsLowVolume = 20
 )
 
-// recommendationMetric is one recommendation surface's outcomes.
-type recommendationMetric struct {
-	Source        string  `json:"source"`         // 'for_you' | 'discover' | mixes
-	Plays         int64   `json:"plays"`          // plays launched from this surface
+// Surface intents (milestone #127): each family is judged against its
+// job, not one global bar — discovery mixes are EXPECTED to run higher
+// skip rates than the go-to surfaces.
+const (
+	intentGoTo      = "go_to"
+	intentDiscovery = "discovery"
+	intentDirect    = "direct"
+)
+
+// surfaceMetric is one bucketed surface family's outcomes.
+type surfaceMetric struct {
+	Key           string  `json:"key"`            // stable family key ("for_you", "radio", …)
+	Label         string  `json:"label"`          // display label
+	Plays         int64   `json:"plays"`          // plays launched from this family
 	Skips         int64   `json:"skips"`          // of those, marked skipped
 	SkipRate      float64 `json:"skip_rate"`      // skips / plays, [0,1]
 	AvgCompletion float64 `json:"avg_completion"` // mean completion ratio, [0,1]
+	LowConfidence bool    `json:"low_confidence"` // plays < recMetricsLowVolume
+}
+
+// surfaceGroup is one intent band of surface families.
+type surfaceGroup struct {
+	Intent   string          `json:"intent"` // go_to | discovery | direct
+	Label    string          `json:"label"`
+	Surfaces []surfaceMetric `json:"surfaces"`
 }
 
 type recommendationMetricsResp struct {
-	WindowDays int                    `json:"window_days"`
-	Sources    []recommendationMetric `json:"sources"`
+	WindowDays int `json:"window_days"`
+	// Baseline is the control group: plays the user picked manually
+	// (source IS NULL). Surfaces are judged as deltas against it; nil
+	// when the window holds no manual plays.
+	Baseline *surfaceMetric `json:"baseline"`
+	Groups   []surfaceGroup `json:"groups"`
+}
+
+// recFamily is the bucketing target for a raw play_events.source value.
+type recFamily struct {
+	key    string
+	label  string
+	intent string
+}
+
+// bucketRecSource maps a raw client-stamped source string to its stable
+// family. One-off sources (album:<uuid>, radio:<uuid>) collapse into
+// their family so the table stays readable at any library size.
+func bucketRecSource(src string) recFamily {
+	switch {
+	case src == "for_you":
+		return recFamily{"for_you", "For You", intentGoTo}
+	case src == "songs_like_artist":
+		return recFamily{"songs_like_artist", "Songs like…", intentGoTo}
+	case src == "radio" || strings.HasPrefix(src, "radio:"):
+		return recFamily{"radio", "Radio", intentGoTo}
+	case src == "discover":
+		return recFamily{"discover", "Discover", intentDiscovery}
+	case src == "deep_cuts":
+		return recFamily{"deep_cuts", "Deep cuts", intentDiscovery}
+	case src == "rediscover":
+		return recFamily{"rediscover", "Rediscover", intentDiscovery}
+	case src == "new_for_you":
+		return recFamily{"new_for_you", "New for you", intentDiscovery}
+	case src == "on_this_day":
+		return recFamily{"on_this_day", "On this day", intentDiscovery}
+	case src == "first_listens":
+		return recFamily{"first_listens", "First listens", intentDiscovery}
+	case strings.HasPrefix(src, "album:"):
+		return recFamily{"direct_album", "Album plays", intentDirect}
+	case strings.HasPrefix(src, "artist:"):
+		return recFamily{"direct_artist", "Artist plays", intentDirect}
+	case strings.HasPrefix(src, "offline:"):
+		return recFamily{"offline", "Offline pools", intentDirect}
+	case strings.HasPrefix(src, "home:"):
+		return recFamily{"home", "Home sections", intentDirect}
+	case src == "history":
+		return recFamily{"history", "History", intentDirect}
+	default:
+		return recFamily{"other", "Other", intentDirect}
+	}
+}
+
+// familyAccum merges raw source rows into one family, carrying the
+// completion sample count so the merged average stays play-weighted.
+type familyAccum struct {
+	fam         recFamily
+	plays       int64
+	skips       int64
+	completionN int64
+	// completionSum is avg*count re-expanded, so merging N raw rows
+	// reduces to a single weighted division at the end.
+	completionSum float64
+}
+
+func (a *familyAccum) add(row dbq.RecommendationSourceMetricsForUserRow) {
+	a.plays += row.Plays
+	a.skips += row.Skips
+	a.completionN += row.CompletionN
+	a.completionSum += row.AvgCompletion * float64(row.CompletionN)
+}
+
+func (a *familyAccum) metric() surfaceMetric {
+	m := surfaceMetric{
+		Key:           a.fam.key,
+		Label:         a.fam.label,
+		Plays:         a.plays,
+		Skips:         a.skips,
+		LowConfidence: a.plays < recMetricsLowVolume,
+	}
+	if a.plays > 0 {
+		m.SkipRate = float64(a.skips) / float64(a.plays)
+	}
+	if a.completionN > 0 {
+		m.AvgCompletion = a.completionSum / float64(a.completionN)
+	}
+	return m
 }
 
 // handleGetRecommendationMetrics implements GET /api/me/recommendation-metrics.
-// Per-source play outcomes (plays / skips / skip-rate / avg-completion) for the
-// caller over the last `days` (default 30, capped at 365), so the operator can
-// see which recommendation surfaces are landing and tune the taste weights.
-// Only plays tagged with a system-playlist source count; library/radio plays
-// (no source) are excluded.
+// Bucketed per-surface-family outcomes for the caller over the last `days`
+// (default 30, capped at 365), grouped by surface intent and anchored by the
+// manual-plays baseline so the numbers are judgeable, not just observable.
 func (h *handlers) handleGetRecommendationMetrics(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http.Request) {
 	caller, ok := requireUser(w, r)
 	if !ok {
@@ -51,28 +160,59 @@ func (h *handlers) handleGetRecommendationMetrics(w http.ResponseWriter, r *http
 		return
 	}
 
-	out := recommendationMetricsResp{
-		WindowDays: days,
-		Sources:    make([]recommendationMetric, 0, len(rows)),
-	}
+	writeJSON(w, http.StatusOK, bucketMetricsResponse(days, rows))
+}
+
+// bucketMetricsResponse folds the raw per-source rows into the grouped,
+// baseline-anchored response shape. Split from the handler for pure-unit
+// testability.
+func bucketMetricsResponse(
+	days int, rows []dbq.RecommendationSourceMetricsForUserRow,
+) recommendationMetricsResp {
+	baseline := &familyAccum{fam: recFamily{"manual", "Manual library plays", ""}}
+	families := map[string]*familyAccum{}
 	for _, row := range rows {
-		source := ""
-		if row.Source != nil {
-			source = *row.Source
+		if row.Source == nil || *row.Source == "" {
+			baseline.add(row)
+			continue
 		}
-		var skipRate float64
-		if row.Plays > 0 {
-			skipRate = float64(row.Skips) / float64(row.Plays)
+		fam := bucketRecSource(*row.Source)
+		acc, exists := families[fam.key]
+		if !exists {
+			acc = &familyAccum{fam: fam}
+			families[fam.key] = acc
 		}
-		out.Sources = append(out.Sources, recommendationMetric{
-			Source:        source,
-			Plays:         row.Plays,
-			Skips:         row.Skips,
-			SkipRate:      skipRate,
-			AvgCompletion: row.AvgCompletion,
-		})
+		acc.add(row)
 	}
-	writeJSON(w, http.StatusOK, out)
+
+	resp := recommendationMetricsResp{WindowDays: days, Groups: []surfaceGroup{}}
+	if baseline.plays > 0 {
+		m := baseline.metric()
+		resp.Baseline = &m
+	}
+	for _, g := range []struct{ intent, label string }{
+		{intentGoTo, "Go-to surfaces"},
+		{intentDiscovery, "Discovery mixes"},
+		{intentDirect, "Direct plays"},
+	} {
+		group := surfaceGroup{Intent: g.intent, Label: g.label}
+		for _, acc := range families {
+			if acc.fam.intent == g.intent {
+				group.Surfaces = append(group.Surfaces, acc.metric())
+			}
+		}
+		if len(group.Surfaces) == 0 {
+			continue
+		}
+		sort.Slice(group.Surfaces, func(i, j int) bool {
+			if group.Surfaces[i].Plays != group.Surfaces[j].Plays {
+				return group.Surfaces[i].Plays > group.Surfaces[j].Plays
+			}
+			return group.Surfaces[i].Key < group.Surfaces[j].Key
+		})
+		resp.Groups = append(resp.Groups, group)
+	}
+	return resp
 }
 
 // parseMetricsDays reads the `days` query param (default 30, capped at 365).

internal/api/me_recommendation_metrics_test.go

@@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ import (
 
 	"github.com/go-chi/chi/v5"
 	"github.com/jackc/pgx/v5/pgtype"
+
+	"git.fabledsword.com/bvandeusen/minstrel/internal/db/dbq"
 )
 
 func newMetricsRouter(h *handlers) chi.Router {
@@ -20,7 +22,7 @@ func newMetricsRouter(h *handlers) chi.Router {
 }
 
 // seedSourcedPlay inserts a play_event with an explicit source + completion +
-// skip flag. A nil source inserts NULL (library/radio play).
+// skip flag. A nil source inserts NULL (manual library play → baseline).
 func seedSourcedPlay(
 	t *testing.T, h *handlers, userID, trackID, sessionID pgtype.UUID,
 	source *string, completion float64, skipped bool,
@@ -45,7 +47,77 @@ func TestRecommendationMetrics_NoSession401(t *testing.T) {
 	}
 }
 
-func TestRecommendationMetrics_AggregatesBySourceExcludingNull(t *testing.T) {
+// findSurface returns the named family from any group, or nil.
+func findSurface(resp recommendationMetricsResp, key string) *surfaceMetric {
+	for _, g := range resp.Groups {
+		for i := range g.Surfaces {
+			if g.Surfaces[i].Key == key {
+				return &g.Surfaces[i]
+			}
+		}
+	}
+	return nil
+}
+
+func TestBucketMetricsResponse_FamiliesGroupsBaseline(t *testing.T) {
+	src := func(s string) *string { return &s }
+	rows := []dbq.RecommendationSourceMetricsForUserRow{
+		{Source: src("for_you"), Plays: 3, Skips: 1, CompletionN: 3, AvgCompletion: 2.0 / 3},
+		// Two radio sessions collapse into one "radio" family; weighted
+		// completion = (0.2*1 + 0.8*1) / 2 = 0.5.
+		{Source: src("radio:aaaa"), Plays: 1, Skips: 1, CompletionN: 1, AvgCompletion: 0.2},
+		{Source: src("radio:bbbb"), Plays: 1, Skips: 0, CompletionN: 1, AvgCompletion: 0.8},
+		{Source: src("album:cccc"), Plays: 1, Skips: 0, CompletionN: 0, AvgCompletion: 0},
+		{Source: src("discover"), Plays: 1, Skips: 0, CompletionN: 1, AvgCompletion: 0.8},
+		// NULL source = manual plays → baseline, not a group row.
+		{Source: nil, Plays: 25, Skips: 5, CompletionN: 20, AvgCompletion: 0.9},
+	}
+	resp := bucketMetricsResponse(recMetricsDefaultDays, rows)
+
+	if resp.Baseline == nil {
+		t.Fatal("baseline missing")
+	}
+	if resp.Baseline.Plays != 25 || resp.Baseline.SkipRate != 0.2 {
+		t.Errorf("baseline = %+v, want plays=25 skip_rate=0.2", resp.Baseline)
+	}
+	if resp.Baseline.LowConfidence {
+		t.Error("baseline with 25 plays should not be low-confidence")
+	}
+
+	radio := findSurface(resp, "radio")
+	if radio == nil {
+		t.Fatal("radio family missing")
+	}
+	if radio.Plays != 2 || radio.Skips != 1 {
+		t.Errorf("radio plays/skips = %d/%d, want 2/1", radio.Plays, radio.Skips)
+	}
+	if radio.AvgCompletion < 0.49 || radio.AvgCompletion > 0.51 {
+		t.Errorf("radio avg_completion = %.3f, want 0.5 (play-weighted merge)", radio.AvgCompletion)
+	}
+	if !radio.LowConfidence {
+		t.Error("radio with 2 plays should be low-confidence")
+	}
+
+	if s := findSurface(resp, "direct_album"); s == nil || s.Plays != 1 {
+		t.Errorf("direct_album = %+v, want plays=1", s)
+	}
+	if s := findSurface(resp, ""); s != nil {
+		t.Error("NULL source must not appear as a surface family")
+	}
+
+	// Group ordering is intent-banded: go_to before discovery before direct.
+	wantOrder := []string{intentGoTo, intentDiscovery, intentDirect}
+	if len(resp.Groups) != len(wantOrder) {
+		t.Fatalf("groups = %d, want %d", len(resp.Groups), len(wantOrder))
+	}
+	for i, g := range resp.Groups {
+		if g.Intent != wantOrder[i] {
+			t.Errorf("group[%d].intent = %s, want %s", i, g.Intent, wantOrder[i])
+		}
+	}
+}
+
+func TestRecommendationMetrics_BucketsWithBaseline(t *testing.T) {
 	if os.Getenv("MINSTREL_TEST_DATABASE_URL") == "" {
 		t.Skip("MINSTREL_TEST_DATABASE_URL not set")
 	}
@@ -57,14 +129,14 @@ func TestRecommendationMetrics_AggregatesBySourceExcludingNull(t *testing.T) {
 	session := seedPlaySession(t, pool, user.ID, time.Now())
 
 	forYou := "for_you"
-	discover := "discover"
+	radioA := "radio:11111111-1111-1111-1111-111111111111"
 	// for_you: 3 plays, 1 skipped; completions 1.0, 0.95, 0.05 → mean 0.6667.
 	seedSourcedPlay(t, h, user.ID, tk.ID, session, &forYou, 1.0, false)
 	seedSourcedPlay(t, h, user.ID, tk.ID, session, &forYou, 0.95, false)
 	seedSourcedPlay(t, h, user.ID, tk.ID, session, &forYou, 0.05, true)
-	// discover: 1 play.
-	seedSourcedPlay(t, h, user.ID, tk.ID, session, &discover, 0.8, false)
-	// library play (NULL source) — must be excluded.
+	// A radio session play collapses into the "radio" family.
+	seedSourcedPlay(t, h, user.ID, tk.ID, session, &radioA, 0.8, false)
+	// Manual play (NULL source) — the baseline row.
 	seedSourcedPlay(t, h, user.ID, tk.ID, session, nil, 1.0, false)
 
 	req := httptest.NewRequest(http.MethodGet, "/api/me/recommendation-metrics", nil)
@@ -82,15 +154,11 @@ func TestRecommendationMetrics_AggregatesBySourceExcludingNull(t *testing.T) {
 	if resp.WindowDays != recMetricsDefaultDays {
 		t.Errorf("window_days = %d, want %d", resp.WindowDays, recMetricsDefaultDays)
 	}
-	bySource := map[string]recommendationMetric{}
-	for _, m := range resp.Sources {
-		bySource[m.Source] = m
+	if resp.Baseline == nil || resp.Baseline.Plays != 1 {
+		t.Fatalf("baseline = %+v, want plays=1", resp.Baseline)
 	}
-	if _, present := bySource[""]; present {
-		t.Error("NULL-source (library) plays should be excluded")
-	}
-	fy, ok := bySource["for_you"]
-	if !ok {
+	fy := findSurface(resp, "for_you")
+	if fy == nil {
 		t.Fatal("for_you metrics missing")
 	}
 	if fy.Plays != 3 || fy.Skips != 1 {
@@ -102,7 +170,7 @@ func TestRecommendationMetrics_AggregatesBySourceExcludingNull(t *testing.T) {
 	if fy.AvgCompletion < 0.66 || fy.AvgCompletion > 0.67 {
 		t.Errorf("for_you avg_completion = %.4f, want ~0.6667", fy.AvgCompletion)
 	}
-	if d, ok := bySource["discover"]; !ok || d.Plays != 1 || d.Skips != 0 {
-		t.Errorf("discover metrics = %+v, want plays=1 skips=0", d)
+	if radio := findSurface(resp, "radio"); radio == nil || radio.Plays != 1 {
+		t.Errorf("radio family = %+v, want plays=1 (collapsed from radio:<uuid>)", radio)
 	}
 }

internal/db/dbq/recommendation_metrics.sql.go

@@ -17,12 +17,10 @@ SELECT
     pe.source,
     count(*)::bigint AS plays,
     count(*) FILTER (WHERE pe.was_skipped)::bigint AS skips,
-    COALESCE(
-        avg(pe.completion_ratio) FILTER (WHERE pe.completion_ratio IS NOT NULL),
-        0)::float8 AS avg_completion
+    count(pe.completion_ratio)::bigint AS completion_n,
+    COALESCE(avg(pe.completion_ratio), 0)::float8 AS avg_completion
 FROM play_events pe
 WHERE pe.user_id = $1
-  AND pe.source IS NOT NULL
   AND pe.started_at > now() - ($2::float8 * INTERVAL '1 day')
 GROUP BY pe.source
 ORDER BY plays DESC
@@ -37,16 +35,21 @@ type RecommendationSourceMetricsForUserRow struct {
 	Source        *string
 	Plays         int64
 	Skips         int64
+	CompletionN   int64
 	AvgCompletion float64
 }
 
 // Recommendation observability (#796 phase 4). Per-source play outcomes so the
 // operator can see whether each recommendation surface is landing and tune the
 // taste weights. Source is stamped on play_events when a play is launched from
-// a system-playlist surface ('for_you' | 'discover' | the discovery mixes);
-// NULL for library / radio / user-playlist plays, which are excluded here.
+// a recommendation surface; NULL means the user picked the track manually —
+// those rows are INCLUDED here as the baseline control group the surfaces are
+// judged against (milestone #127: delta-vs-baseline is what makes the numbers
+// actionable). Raw source strings are bucketed into stable surface families in
+// the Go handler; completion_n is carried so family merges can weight
+// avg_completion correctly.
 // $1 user_id, $2 window_days. plays/skips are counts; avg_completion is the
-// mean completion ratio over plays that recorded one (0 when none did).
+// mean completion ratio over the completion_n plays that recorded one.
 func (q *Queries) RecommendationSourceMetricsForUser(ctx context.Context, arg RecommendationSourceMetricsForUserParams) ([]RecommendationSourceMetricsForUserRow, error) {
 	rows, err := q.db.Query(ctx, recommendationSourceMetricsForUser, arg.UserID, arg.Column2)
 	if err != nil {
@@ -60,6 +63,7 @@ func (q *Queries) RecommendationSourceMetricsForUser(ctx context.Context, arg Re
 			&i.Source,
 			&i.Plays,
 			&i.Skips,
+			&i.CompletionN,
 			&i.AvgCompletion,
 		); err != nil {
 			return nil, err

internal/db/queries/recommendation_metrics.sql

@@ -1,22 +1,24 @@
 -- Recommendation observability (#796 phase 4). Per-source play outcomes so the
 -- operator can see whether each recommendation surface is landing and tune the
 -- taste weights. Source is stamped on play_events when a play is launched from
--- a system-playlist surface ('for_you' | 'discover' | the discovery mixes);
--- NULL for library / radio / user-playlist plays, which are excluded here.
+-- a recommendation surface; NULL means the user picked the track manually —
+-- those rows are INCLUDED here as the baseline control group the surfaces are
+-- judged against (milestone #127: delta-vs-baseline is what makes the numbers
+-- actionable). Raw source strings are bucketed into stable surface families in
+-- the Go handler; completion_n is carried so family merges can weight
+-- avg_completion correctly.
 
 -- name: RecommendationSourceMetricsForUser :many
 -- $1 user_id, $2 window_days. plays/skips are counts; avg_completion is the
--- mean completion ratio over plays that recorded one (0 when none did).
+-- mean completion ratio over the completion_n plays that recorded one.
 SELECT
     pe.source,
     count(*)::bigint AS plays,
     count(*) FILTER (WHERE pe.was_skipped)::bigint AS skips,
-    COALESCE(
-        avg(pe.completion_ratio) FILTER (WHERE pe.completion_ratio IS NOT NULL),
-        0)::float8 AS avg_completion
+    count(pe.completion_ratio)::bigint AS completion_n,
+    COALESCE(avg(pe.completion_ratio), 0)::float8 AS avg_completion
 FROM play_events pe
 WHERE pe.user_id = $1
-  AND pe.source IS NOT NULL
   AND pe.started_at > now() - ($2::float8 * INTERVAL '1 day')
 GROUP BY pe.source
 ORDER BY plays DESC;

web/src/lib/api/metrics.ts

@@ -1,18 +1,31 @@
 import { createQuery } from '@tanstack/svelte-query';
 import { api } from './client';
 
-// Mirrors internal/api/me_recommendation_metrics.go.
-export type RecommendationMetric = {
-  source: string;
+// Mirrors internal/api/me_recommendation_metrics.go: raw play sources are
+// bucketed server-side into stable surface families, grouped by intent, and
+// anchored by the manual-plays baseline (milestone #127).
+export type SurfaceMetric = {
+  key: string;
+  label: string;
   plays: number;
   skips: number;
   skip_rate: number;
   avg_completion: number;
+  low_confidence: boolean;
+};
+
+export type SurfaceIntent = 'go_to' | 'discovery' | 'direct';
+
+export type SurfaceGroup = {
+  intent: SurfaceIntent;
+  label: string;
+  surfaces: SurfaceMetric[];
 };
 
 export type RecommendationMetrics = {
   window_days: number;
-  sources: RecommendationMetric[];
+  baseline: SurfaceMetric | null;
+  groups: SurfaceGroup[];
 };
 
 export function getRecommendationMetrics(): Promise<RecommendationMetrics> {
@@ -28,19 +41,3 @@ export function createRecommendationMetricsQuery() {
     staleTime: 60_000
   });
 }
-
-// Friendly labels for the system-playlist source keys (play_events.source).
-const SOURCE_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
-  for_you: 'For You',
-  discover: 'Discover',
-  deep_cuts: 'Deep cuts',
-  rediscover: 'Rediscover',
-  new_for_you: 'New for you',
-  on_this_day: 'On this day',
-  first_listens: 'First listens',
-  songs_like_artist: 'Songs like…'
-};
-
-export function sourceLabel(source: string): string {
-  return SOURCE_LABELS[source] ?? source;
-}

web/src/routes/settings/+page.svelte

@@ -10,8 +10,9 @@
   } from '$lib/api/listenbrainz';
   import {
     createRecommendationMetricsQuery,
-    sourceLabel,
-    type RecommendationMetrics
+    type RecommendationMetrics,
+    type SurfaceIntent,
+    type SurfaceMetric
   } from '$lib/api/metrics';
   import { theme, setTheme, type ThemePreference } from '$lib/stores/theme.svelte';
   import { player, setCrossfade } from '$lib/player/store.svelte';
@@ -30,6 +31,34 @@
 
   const status = createLBStatusQuery() as CreateQueryResult<LBStatus>;
   const metrics = createRecommendationMetricsQuery() as CreateQueryResult<RecommendationMetrics>;
+
+  // Per-intent expectation copy: each surface band is judged against its
+  // job — discovery mixes are supposed to run hotter skip rates.
+  const intentHints: Record<SurfaceIntent, string> = {
+    go_to: 'Everyday surfaces — these should beat your own picking.',
+    discovery: 'Exploration surfaces — higher skip rates here are expected and healthy.',
+    direct: 'Music you chose yourself — naturally close to the baseline.'
+  };
+
+  function pct(v: number): string {
+    return `${(v * 100).toFixed(0)}%`;
+  }
+
+  // Delta in percentage points vs the baseline, signed ("+12" / "−5").
+  function deltaPts(value: number, baseline: number): string {
+    const pts = Math.round((value - baseline) * 100);
+    return pts > 0 ? `+${pts}` : `${pts}`;
+  }
+
+  // A surface's skip delta is "worse" when it skips more than the
+  // baseline; completion delta is "worse" when it completes less.
+  function skipDeltaClass(m: SurfaceMetric, baseline: SurfaceMetric): string {
+    return m.skip_rate > baseline.skip_rate ? 'text-danger' : 'text-text-secondary';
+  }
+
+  function completionDeltaClass(m: SurfaceMetric, baseline: SurfaceMetric): string {
+    return m.avg_completion < baseline.avg_completion ? 'text-danger' : 'text-text-secondary';
+  }
   const tokenMutation = createTokenMutation(queryClient);
   const enabledMutation = createEnabledMutation(queryClient);
 
@@ -278,37 +307,79 @@
     <h2 class="text-lg font-semibold">Recommendation metrics</h2>
     <p class="text-sm text-text-secondary">
       How plays launched from each recommendation surface land, over the last
-      {$metrics.data?.window_days ?? 30} days. Lower skip rate and higher average
-      completion mean the surface is hitting.
+      {$metrics.data?.window_days ?? 30} days — compared against the baseline of
+      music you picked yourself. Deltas are percentage points vs that baseline.
     </p>
     {#if $metrics.isPending}
       <p class="text-sm text-text-secondary">Loading…</p>
     {:else if $metrics.isError}
       <p class="text-sm text-text-secondary">Couldn't load metrics.</p>
-    {:else if $metrics.data && $metrics.data.sources.length > 0}
-      <table class="w-full text-sm">
-        <thead>
-          <tr class="text-left text-text-secondary">
-            <th class="py-1 font-medium">Surface</th>
-            <th class="py-1 text-right font-medium">Plays</th>
-            <th class="py-1 text-right font-medium">Skip rate</th>
-            <th class="py-1 text-right font-medium">Avg completion</th>
-          </tr>
-        </thead>
-        <tbody>
-          {#each $metrics.data.sources as m (m.source)}
-            <tr class="border-t border-border">
-              <td class="py-1">{sourceLabel(m.source)}</td>
-              <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">{m.plays}</td>
-              <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">{(m.skip_rate * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
-              <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">{(m.avg_completion * 100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
-            </tr>
-          {/each}
-        </tbody>
-      </table>
+    {:else if $metrics.data && ($metrics.data.groups.length > 0 || $metrics.data.baseline)}
+      {@const baseline = $metrics.data.baseline}
+      {#if baseline}
+        <p class="rounded bg-background px-3 py-2 text-sm">
+          <span class="font-medium">Baseline — manual plays:</span>
+          <span class="text-text-secondary">
+            {baseline.plays} plays · {pct(baseline.skip_rate)} skip ·
+            {pct(baseline.avg_completion)} completion
+          </span>
+        </p>
+      {:else}
+        <p class="text-sm text-text-secondary">
+          No manual plays in this window yet, so deltas are hidden — raw rates only.
+        </p>
+      {/if}
+      {#each $metrics.data.groups as group (group.intent)}
+        <div class="space-y-1">
+          <h3 class="text-sm font-medium">{group.label}</h3>
+          <p class="text-xs text-text-secondary">{intentHints[group.intent]}</p>
+          <table class="w-full text-sm">
+            <thead>
+              <tr class="text-left text-text-secondary">
+                <th class="py-1 font-medium">Surface</th>
+                <th class="py-1 text-right font-medium">Plays</th>
+                <th class="py-1 text-right font-medium">Skip rate</th>
+                <th class="py-1 text-right font-medium">Avg completion</th>
+              </tr>
+            </thead>
+            <tbody>
+              {#each group.surfaces as m (m.key)}
+                <tr
+                  class="border-t border-border"
+                  class:opacity-60={m.low_confidence}
+                  title={m.low_confidence
+                    ? 'Fewer than 20 plays — treat these rates as anecdote, not signal.'
+                    : undefined}
+                >
+                  <td class="py-1">
+                    {m.label}{#if m.low_confidence}<span class="ml-1 text-xs text-text-secondary">· low data</span>{/if}
+                  </td>
+                  <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">{m.plays}</td>
+                  <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">
+                    {pct(m.skip_rate)}
+                    {#if baseline}
+                      <span class="ml-1 text-xs {skipDeltaClass(m, baseline)}">
+                        {deltaPts(m.skip_rate, baseline.skip_rate)}
+                      </span>
+                    {/if}
+                  </td>
+                  <td class="py-1 text-right tabular-nums">
+                    {pct(m.avg_completion)}
+                    {#if baseline}
+                      <span class="ml-1 text-xs {completionDeltaClass(m, baseline)}">
+                        {deltaPts(m.avg_completion, baseline.avg_completion)}
+                      </span>
+                    {/if}
+                  </td>
+                </tr>
+              {/each}
+            </tbody>
+          </table>
+        </div>
+      {/each}
     {:else}
       <p class="text-sm text-text-secondary">
-        No recommendation plays yet. Play something from For You, Discover, or a mix.
+        No plays recorded yet. Play something from For You, Discover, or a mix.
       </p>
     {/if}
   </section>

web/src/routes/settings/Appearance.test.ts

@@ -28,11 +28,10 @@ vi.mock('$lib/api/listenbrainz', () => {
 vi.mock('$lib/api/metrics', () => ({
   createRecommendationMetricsQuery: () => ({
     subscribe: (run: (v: unknown) => void) => {
-      run({ isPending: false, isError: false, data: { window_days: 30, sources: [] } });
+      run({ isPending: false, isError: false, data: { window_days: 30, baseline: null, groups: [] } });
       return () => {};
     }
-  }),
-  sourceLabel: (s: string) => s
+  })
 }));
 
 beforeEach(() => {

web/src/routes/settings/settings.test.ts

@@ -23,11 +23,10 @@ vi.mock('$lib/api/me', () => ({
 vi.mock('$lib/api/metrics', () => ({
   createRecommendationMetricsQuery: () => ({
     subscribe: (run: (v: unknown) => void) => {
-      run({ isPending: false, isError: false, data: { window_days: 30, sources: [] } });
+      run({ isPending: false, isError: false, data: { window_days: 30, baseline: null, groups: [] } });
       return () => {};
     }
-  }),
-  sourceLabel: (s: string) => s
+  })
 }));
 
 import SettingsPage from './+page.svelte';