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feat(telemetry): record WHAT the bar turned away, not only how close it came (#3807)
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#3670 added `best_available_score` so a threshold could be judged from its rejections. It records how CLOSE the bar came to firing and not WHAT it refused, and that is the half a decision actually needs. Live, pre_tool_rule sits at a ~0.72 bar with a near-miss p90 of 0.7071 — about 117 declines a day within 0.013 of firing. Dropping to 0.707 would take that arm from 22 hits a day to roughly 139: six-fold, on a surface that runs before every Bash call. The percentile says the mass is there. Nothing said whether it was worth showing. NEITHER OBVIOUS INSTRUMENT ANSWERS IT. Pull-through cannot: the injected rule line already carries title and trigger, so a session can comply without ever calling get_rule, and rule pull-through understates usefulness by construction. Reading the rejected records can — and `result_ids` holds only what was RETURNED, so on a zero-result call the near-missed record had no name at all. So the id, from the SAME ranked candidate as the score. Both searches unpack `best` once and read both fields off it, because splitting that into two expressions is exactly how a later edit pairs a score with its neighbour's id — and a score attached to the wrong record is worse than no id, since it invites judging the wrong one and concluding the bar is fine. write_path withholds the id on the same condition it withholds the score (#3739): a surviving id beside a null score names a record without saying what it scored, the pair disagreeing in the other direction. THE READ PATH IS A LISTING, NOT A STATISTIC — an id cannot be percentiled, and a reader tuning a bar needs to go and read the records. Opt-in via `near_miss_samples` (0-20, default 0) so the ordinary readout keeps its size, and deliberately NOT a window function: this module's one production outage was a grouped query Postgres rejected, swallowed by the broad except, every counter reading zero while the mocked tests passed (#2663). One flat ordered query, overfetched, bucketed in Python — the shape that lesson prescribes. Migration 0097, nullable and unbackfilled. Not a foreign key: the table spans record types and `source` says which, exactly as result_ids works. The integration guard pins the listing as PER SOURCE. A global LIMIT would let a noisy source eat the whole quota and leave the surface being tuned showing nothing — which reads as "nothing was close", the misreading this milestone has spent itself correcting. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_011cPyzNnegXHr5iRMzzy5KJ |