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Operator-flagged on the deployed .5 build: the autoscaler grew the pool 1→8 against an EMPTY queue (an empty buffer read as 'GPU starving' regardless of WHY), and every downloader kept polling lease every 10s all night. - New idle signal straight from the lease results: an empty lease sets _idle, any jobs clear it. The occupancy-low branch now distinguishes three cases: queue empty → shed to ONE polling downloader; pinned at the bandwidth cap → shed toward 3; cap headroom + work flowing → grow. - Idle lease polls back off exponentially per downloader to IDLE_POLL_MAX_SECONDS (15 min) and reset the moment work appears — so an idle night costs one HTTP call per 15 min, and new work is noticed within at most ~15 min (operator-accepted trade-off). - UI hint: 'idle — queue empty, lease poll backed off'; /status gains idle. Agent build 2026-07-02.6. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01CDgx8bQS5YrGRK76v8HUnM