alembic/versions/0104_worker_lane_autoscale.py

@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+"""worker_lane.autoscale — may this lane grow itself?
+
+Milestone 422 step 7. One boolean, defaulting FALSE on every existing row and
+on every new one.
+
+## Why the default is false and not "sensible"
+
+This is the only part of the milestone that acts without anyone watching. The
+manual dial (step 4) and the reconcile (step 3) both do exactly what someone
+asked for; this one decides. Shipping it on would mean every install starts
+with a process that changes its own resource usage based on a heuristic tuned
+against nobody's workload.
+
+Off also makes the failure mode benign: if the signal is wrong, nothing
+happens until an operator opts a lane in, and they opted in while watching.
+
+## Why per lane and not one global switch
+
+The lanes are not alike in what a slot costs. A `worker` slot is a process;
+an `ml` slot is another copy of a ~3.5GB model. A global switch would enable
+growth on a lane whose behaviour under load nobody has observed, and the one
+it would hurt most is the one whose cost is least visible.
+
+Revision ID: 0104
+Revises: 0103
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+from alembic import op
+
+revision: str = "0104"
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = "0103"
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.add_column(
+        "worker_lane",
+        sa.Column(
+            "autoscale", sa.Boolean(),
+            server_default=sa.text("false"), nullable=False,
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_column("worker_lane", "autoscale")

backend/app/api/workers.py

@@ -84,15 +84,16 @@ async def update_lane(name: str):
             if not isinstance(value, int) or isinstance(value, bool):
                 return _bad("invalid_body", detail=f"{key} must be an integer")
             fields[key] = value
-    if "enabled" in body:
-        if not isinstance(body["enabled"], bool):
-            return _bad("invalid_body", detail="enabled must be a boolean")
-        fields["enabled"] = body["enabled"]
+    for key in ("enabled", "autoscale"):
+        if key in body:
+            if not isinstance(body[key], bool):
+                return _bad("invalid_body", detail=f"{key} must be a boolean")
+            fields[key] = body[key]
 
     if not fields:
         return _bad(
             "invalid_body",
-            detail="give at least one of slots, slots_cap, enabled",
+            detail="give at least one of slots, slots_cap, enabled, autoscale",
         )
 
     async with get_session() as session:

backend/app/celery_app.py

@@ -111,6 +111,14 @@ def make_celery() -> Celery:
                 "task": "backend.app.tasks.maintenance.recover_interrupted_tasks",
                 "schedule": 300.0,  # every 5 minutes
             },
+            "autoscale-worker-lanes": {
+                "task": "backend.app.tasks.maintenance.autoscale_worker_lanes",
+                "schedule": 60.0,  # every minute — it reacts to a BACKLOG, and
+                # a five-minute reaction to a queue filling up is no reaction.
+                # Cheap when nothing opted in (one DB read, then nothing) and
+                # cheap when settled (one inspect + one LLEN sweep, no control
+                # messages), so the short interval costs little.
+            },
             "reconcile-worker-lanes": {
                 "task": "backend.app.tasks.maintenance.reconcile_worker_lanes",
                 "schedule": 300.0,  # every 5 minutes — the window in which a

backend/app/models/worker_lane.py

@@ -78,6 +78,18 @@ class WorkerLane(Base):
     slots_cap: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, nullable=False)
     enabled: Mapped[bool] = mapped_column(Boolean, nullable=False)
 
+    # Whether the autoscaler may raise this lane's slots on its own, up to
+    # slots_cap and never past it (milestone 422 step 7).
+    #
+    # OFF by default and per-lane rather than global. It is the one part of
+    # this milestone that acts unattended, so it is opt-in per lane the
+    # operator has actually thought about — a global switch would turn it on
+    # for lanes whose behaviour under load nobody has watched, including `ml`,
+    # where every extra slot is another copy of a multi-GB model.
+    autoscale: Mapped[bool] = mapped_column(
+        Boolean, nullable=False, server_default="false",
+    )
+
     updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(
         DateTime(timezone=True),
         nullable=False,

backend/app/services/worker_control.py

@@ -50,11 +50,12 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 import asyncio
 import logging
 from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+from datetime import UTC, datetime
 
-from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy import func, select
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
-from ..models import WorkerLane
+from ..models import TaskRun, WorkerLane
 from .worker_lanes import LANES, LANES_BY_QUEUE_KEY, Lane, derived_ceiling
 
 log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@@ -103,6 +104,16 @@ class LaneLiveState:
         no replica reported — unknown, never zero."""
         return max(self.pools.values()) if self.pools else None
 
+    @property
+    def capacity(self) -> int:
+        """Total slots across replicas — how many tasks this lane can run at
+        once. Distinct from `pool`, and the two must not be confused: `pool`
+        is the DIAL (one process's size, what grow/shrink move), `capacity` is
+        the CAPABILITY. Asking "is this lane saturated" compares `active`,
+        which is summed across replicas, against this — against `pool` it
+        would call two half-busy replicas of 4 saturated at 4 active."""
+        return sum(self.pools.values())
+
 
 def _lane_for_queues(queues: tuple[str, ...]) -> Lane | None:
     return LANES_BY_QUEUE_KEY.get(tuple(sorted(queues)))
@@ -260,6 +271,7 @@ async def _rows_by_name(session: AsyncSession) -> dict[str, WorkerLane]:
             slots=lane.default_slots,
             slots_cap=lane.default_slots_cap,
             enabled=lane.default_enabled,
+            autoscale=lane.default_autoscale,
         )
         session.add(row)
         rows[lane.name] = row
@@ -278,7 +290,9 @@ async def lane_view(session: AsyncSession) -> list[dict]:
     rows = await _rows_by_name(session)
     live = await asyncio.to_thread(inspect_lanes_sync)
     depths = await asyncio.to_thread(_queue_depths_sync)
+    oldest = await _oldest_running_by_queue(session)
 
+    now = datetime.now(UTC)
     out = []
     for lane in LANES:
         row = rows[lane.name]
@@ -297,6 +311,7 @@ async def lane_view(session: AsyncSession) -> list[dict]:
             "slots_cap": row.slots_cap,
             "ceiling": derived_ceiling(lane),
             "enabled": row.enabled,
+            "autoscale": row.autoscale,
             "memory_bound": lane.memory_bound,
             "optional": lane.optional,
             # What enabling this lane will download, so the UI can say WHICH
@@ -321,10 +336,55 @@ async def lane_view(session: AsyncSession) -> list[dict]:
             },
             "queue_depth": depth,
             "pending": None if depth is None else depth + state.reserved,
+            # How long the oldest still-running task on this lane has been
+            # going, in minutes. The operator asked for a trigger here — grow
+            # a lane whose tasks run past some duration — and it stayed a
+            # REPORT: a long task does not finish sooner because the lane
+            # gained a slot, so scaling on it would spend memory to change
+            # nothing. Shown so they can see a lane wedged on one slow job,
+            # which is the genuinely useful half of the idea.
+            "oldest_running_minutes": _minutes_since(
+                min(
+                    (oldest[q] for q in lane.queues if q in oldest),
+                    default=None,
+                ),
+                now,
+            ),
         })
     return out
 
 
+async def _oldest_running_by_queue(session: AsyncSession) -> dict[str, datetime]:
+    """When the longest-running unfinished task on each queue started.
+
+    Read from `task_run`, which is OUR OWN table on OUR OWN wall clock, and
+    deliberately not from celery's `inspect active()`. Those entries carry a
+    `time_start` taken from the WORKER's `time.monotonic()` — a clock with an
+    arbitrary origin per process. Subtracting it from this process's wall
+    clock produces a number that looks like a duration and is meaningless, and
+    it would be meaningless in the direction that matters: plausible.
+
+    `task_run` also already carries the per-queue staleness thresholds the
+    recovery sweep uses, so a row still `running` here is one the system
+    itself considers legitimately in flight rather than abandoned.
+    """
+    result = await session.execute(
+        select(TaskRun.queue, func.min(TaskRun.started_at))
+        .where(TaskRun.status == "running", TaskRun.finished_at.is_(None))
+        .group_by(TaskRun.queue)
+    )
+    return {queue: started for queue, started in result if started is not None}
+
+
+def _minutes_since(started: datetime | None, now: datetime) -> int | None:
+    """Whole minutes, or None when nothing is running. Never negative: a row
+    written by a container whose clock is a few seconds ahead must read as 0
+    rather than as a task that starts in the future."""
+    if started is None:
+        return None
+    return max(0, int((now - started).total_seconds() // 60))
+
+
 def _queue_depths_sync() -> dict[str, int | None]:
     """Redis LLEN per queue. None for one that did not answer — see lane_view.
 
@@ -362,6 +422,7 @@ async def set_lane(
     slots: int | None = None,
     slots_cap: int | None = None,
     enabled: bool | None = None,
+    autoscale: bool | None = None,
 ) -> dict:
     """Store the operator's choice, then push it to the running lane.
 
@@ -383,6 +444,7 @@ async def set_lane(
     new_cap = row.slots_cap if slots_cap is None else slots_cap
     new_slots = row.slots if slots is None else slots
     new_enabled = row.enabled if enabled is None else enabled
+    new_autoscale = row.autoscale if autoscale is None else autoscale
 
     ceiling = derived_ceiling(lane)
     if new_cap < 0 or new_slots < 0:
@@ -398,6 +460,7 @@ async def set_lane(
     row.slots_cap = new_cap
     row.slots = new_slots
     row.enabled = new_enabled
+    row.autoscale = new_autoscale
     await session.commit()
 
     applied, error = True, None
@@ -428,6 +491,7 @@ async def set_lane(
         "slots_cap": row.slots_cap,
         "ceiling": ceiling,
         "enabled": row.enabled,
+        "autoscale": row.autoscale,
         "applied": applied,
         "apply_error": error,
         # Tells the card to say a download has started rather than leaving the
@@ -458,11 +522,28 @@ def _enqueue_model_fetch() -> bool:
         return False
 
 
-def reconcile_lanes_sync(desired: dict[str, tuple[int, bool]]) -> dict:
+def reconcile_lanes_sync(
+    desired: dict[str, tuple[int, bool]],
+    autoscaling: frozenset[str] = frozenset(),
+) -> dict:
     """Drive every RUNNING lane to its stored slots and enabled flag.
 
     `desired` is lane name -> (slots, enabled), read from the database by the
-    caller. This function touches no database: the celery task that schedules
+    caller. `autoscaling` names the lanes the autoscaler is allowed to move.
+
+    ## For an autoscaling lane the stored value is a FLOOR, not a target
+
+    Step 7's autoscaler raises a saturated lane's live pool without changing
+    its row — the row holds what the OPERATOR set. If this pass treated that
+    row as an exact target it would shrink the lane back on the very next
+    tick, and the two sweeps would fight forever at five-minute intervals:
+    grow, revert, grow, revert. That is lesson #4183's failure arriving
+    between two enforcers rather than inside one.
+
+    So for those lanes the target becomes `max(stored, current)` — this pass
+    still restores a lane that came back from a restart below what the
+    operator set, and never takes back what the autoscaler added. Bringing it
+    down is the autoscaler's job, and it does so only to that same floor. This function touches no database: the celery task that schedules
     it owns the sync session, and keeping the DB out of here is what lets the
     same code be called from anywhere that already knows the target.
 
@@ -521,17 +602,177 @@ def reconcile_lanes_sync(desired: dict[str, tuple[int, bool]]) -> dict:
             changed.append(lane.name)
 
         current = state.pool
-        if current is not None and current == slots:
+        # The floor, for a lane the autoscaler manages. See the docstring.
+        target_slots = slots
+        if lane.name in autoscaling and current is not None:
+            target_slots = max(slots, current)
+        if current is not None and current == target_slots:
             continue
-        ok, err = set_lane_slots_sync(lane, slots, live=state)
+        ok, err = set_lane_slots_sync(lane, target_slots, live=state)
         if ok:
             if lane.name not in changed:
                 changed.append(lane.name)
             log.info(
                 "worker_control: %s reconciled %s -> %s slots",
-                lane.name, current, slots,
+                lane.name, current, target_slots,
             )
         else:
             failed[lane.name] = err or "could not resize"
 
     return {"changed": changed, "skipped": skipped, "failed": failed}
+
+
+# --- the autoscaler (step 7) --------------------------------------------------
+#
+# The only part of this milestone that acts without anyone asking. Everything
+# above does what an operator pressed; this decides. So it is off by default,
+# opted into per lane, bounded by the cap the operator set, and it reports what
+# it did rather than moving numbers silently.
+
+# ## Why these three numbers are not in Settings
+#
+# Rule 25 puts anything an operator might want to tune in the UI, and the
+# knobs that decide what this does ARE there: whether a lane autoscales at
+# all, its cap, and its floor — all DB-backed, all changeable without a
+# restart. What is left here is the POLICY's internals, and exposing them
+# would add four numbers per lane to a card whose whole value is being
+# readable at a glance, to tune a decision the operator has a better lever
+# for. If growth turns out to be too eager or too shy in practice, that is a
+# reason to change these values for everyone, not to ask each operator to
+# discover them.
+
+# All slots busy AND this many tasks waiting before a lane may grow.
+#
+# The AND is the design. Depth with free slots means nothing — celery is about
+# to pick those up, and growing the pool would add idle children. Saturation
+# with an empty queue means nothing either: the lane is busy with exactly as
+# much work as exists. Only both together say "there is more work than this
+# lane can reach".
+AUTOSCALE_BACKLOG_THRESHOLD = 10
+
+# Grow by one slot per tick, never to the cap in one jump. A lane that is
+# saturated because of one slow burst settles a slot or two above where it
+# started rather than at its ceiling, and the next tick re-measures rather
+# than committing to a guess made once.
+AUTOSCALE_STEP = 1
+
+# Hysteresis: shrink only when the backlog is well BELOW the grow threshold,
+# not merely under it. Equal thresholds flap — one task arriving and leaving
+# would grow and shrink the lane forever at the tick interval, which is
+# lesson #4183's churn arriving through a different door.
+AUTOSCALE_SHRINK_BELOW = 2
+
+
+@dataclass
+class AutoscaleDecision:
+    """What the autoscaler did to one lane, and why — in the operator's terms.
+
+    A reason string on every outcome including "nothing", because an
+    autoscaler that only speaks when it acts is one nobody can debug when it
+    does not.
+    """
+
+    lane: str
+    action: str  # "grew" | "shrank" | "held"
+    slots: int
+    reason: str
+
+
+def autoscale_lanes_sync(
+    lanes: dict[str, tuple[int, int, bool]],
+) -> list[AutoscaleDecision]:
+    """Decide and apply one round of autoscaling.
+
+    `lanes` is name -> (slots_cap, configured_slots, autoscale_on), read from
+    the database by the caller — this function touches no database, for the
+    same reason `reconcile_lanes_sync` does not.
+
+    ## What is current, and what is the floor
+
+    The value this moves is the LIVE pool, read from `inspect`. The stored
+    `configured_slots` is what the operator set and is only the FLOOR: growth
+    goes above it and a shrink returns to it, never below.
+
+    The two are deliberately not the same number, and reading the stored value
+    as "current" is the mistake that makes this function useless in a way no
+    unit test of a single tick would show. The autoscaler never writes the
+    row, so the stored value never moves; a tick that computed `stored + 1`
+    would propose the same target forever, cap the lane one slot above the
+    floor no matter the load, and — because resizing a replica already at the
+    target issues nothing and reports success — claim `grew` on every tick
+    while nothing changed. Lesson #4183's non-convergence, arriving with a
+    success message attached.
+
+    So: `current = state.pool`, `configured` is the floor, and both `grew` and
+    `shrank` mean the live pool actually moved.
+    """
+    live = inspect_lanes_sync()
+    depths = _queue_depths_sync()
+    out: list[AutoscaleDecision] = []
+
+    for lane in LANES:
+        target = lanes.get(lane.name)
+        if target is None:
+            continue
+        cap, configured, on = target
+        if not on:
+            continue
+
+        state = live[lane.name]
+        if not state.present or state.pool is None:
+            # Nothing answered. Not "idle" — unknown, and a decision drawn
+            # from an unswept read is exactly what snippet #3969 warns about.
+            # `configured` is reported because there is no live number to
+            # report; it is what the lane will come back at.
+            out.append(AutoscaleDecision(
+                lane.name, "held", configured, "lane is not answering",
+            ))
+            continue
+
+        current = state.pool
+        known = [depths.get(q) for q in lane.queues]
+        if all(d is None for d in known):
+            out.append(AutoscaleDecision(
+                lane.name, "held", current, "queue depth unavailable",
+            ))
+            continue
+        backlog = sum(d for d in known if d is not None) + state.reserved
+        # Against CAPACITY, not against the dial: `active` is summed across
+        # replicas, so comparing it to one replica's pool size would call two
+        # half-busy replicas of 4 saturated at 4 active and grow a lane that
+        # has idle slots.
+        saturated = state.active >= state.capacity > 0
+        busy = backlog >= AUTOSCALE_BACKLOG_THRESHOLD
+
+        if saturated and busy and current < cap:
+            new = min(cap, current + AUTOSCALE_STEP)
+            ok, err = set_lane_slots_sync(lane, new, live=state)
+            out.append(AutoscaleDecision(
+                lane.name, "grew" if ok else "held", new if ok else current,
+                f"{backlog} waiting and all {state.capacity} slots busy"
+                if ok else f"could not grow: {err}",
+            ))
+        elif saturated and busy:
+            # At the cap with work still waiting. Said out loud rather than
+            # held silently: this is the operator's own ceiling doing its job,
+            # and it is the moment they would want to know they set it.
+            out.append(AutoscaleDecision(
+                lane.name, "held", current,
+                f"{backlog} waiting but the cap is {cap}",
+            ))
+        elif current > configured and backlog <= AUTOSCALE_SHRINK_BELOW:
+            new = max(configured, current - AUTOSCALE_STEP)
+            ok, err = set_lane_slots_sync(lane, new, live=state)
+            out.append(AutoscaleDecision(
+                lane.name, "shrank" if ok else "held", new if ok else current,
+                f"backlog cleared, back toward {configured}"
+                if ok else f"could not shrink: {err}",
+            ))
+        else:
+            # The fixed point. A settled lane sends nothing and says so —
+            # the tick is one inspect and one LLEN sweep, no control messages.
+            out.append(AutoscaleDecision(
+                lane.name, "held", current,
+                f"{backlog} waiting, {state.active} busy",
+            ))
+    return out

backend/app/services/worker_lanes.py

@@ -136,6 +136,11 @@ class Lane:
     # rubber stamp and protects nobody.
     default_slots_cap: int
     default_enabled: bool
+    # Whether a lane arrives with the autoscaler on. False for every lane, and
+    # the field exists anyway: this module is the one place that describes a
+    # lane, and leaving one operator-settable default to the column's DDL
+    # default would make it the only setting you cannot read here.
+    default_autoscale: bool = False
     # True when a slot costs a copy of the ML model rather than just a process.
     # The only lane whose ceiling is decided by memory instead of by cores.
     memory_bound: bool = False

backend/app/tasks/maintenance.py

@@ -1387,14 +1387,69 @@ def reconcile_worker_lanes() -> dict:
     from ..models import WorkerLane
     from ..services.worker_control import reconcile_lanes_sync
 
+    # Both dicts built INSIDE the session. Reading a column off a detached
+    # instance happens to work while the attribute is still loaded and stops
+    # working the moment anything expires it — a failure that would appear
+    # long after this line, in a sweep nobody is watching.
     with _sync_session_factory()() as session:
-        desired = {
-            row.name: (row.slots, row.enabled)
-            for row in session.execute(select(WorkerLane)).scalars()
-        }
+        rows = list(session.execute(select(WorkerLane)).scalars())
+        desired = {row.name: (row.slots, row.enabled) for row in rows}
+        # Lanes the autoscaler may move. For these the stored value is a
+        # FLOOR: this sweep restores a lane that fell below it and never takes
+        # back what the autoscaler added, or the two would fight every five
+        # minutes.
+        autoscaling = frozenset(row.name for row in rows if row.autoscale)
     if not desired:
         # Migration 0103 seeds these, so an empty table means it has not run
         # yet. Nothing to assert — and inventing defaults here would let this
         # task disagree with the seed it is supposed to be enforcing.
         return {"changed": [], "skipped": [], "failed": {}}
-    return reconcile_lanes_sync(desired)
+    return reconcile_lanes_sync(desired, autoscaling)
+
+
+@celery.task(name="backend.app.tasks.maintenance.autoscale_worker_lanes")
+def autoscale_worker_lanes() -> dict:
+    """Grow a saturated lane, within the cap the operator set.
+
+    Milestone 422 step 7, and the only sweep in this milestone that decides
+    rather than obeys. Everything else applies what someone pressed.
+
+    OFF unless a lane opts in. A no-op costs one `celery inspect` and one LLEN
+    sweep and sends no control messages — the same fixed point the reconcile
+    holds, and for the same reason: this runs forever, so a settled system has
+    to be silent or the real signal drowns in its own heartbeat.
+
+    Returns every lane's decision INCLUDING the ones it held, each with a
+    reason. An autoscaler that only speaks when it acts cannot be debugged on
+    the day it does not.
+    """
+    from ..models import WorkerLane
+    from ..services.worker_control import autoscale_lanes_sync
+
+    with _sync_session_factory()() as session:
+        lanes = {
+            # The stored `slots` is passed ONLY as the floor. What the
+            # autoscaler moves is the live pool, which it reads itself — this
+            # row is never written, so using it as the current value would pin
+            # every decision to the same number forever.
+            row.name: (row.slots_cap, row.slots, True)
+            for row in session.execute(select(WorkerLane)).scalars()
+            if row.autoscale
+        }
+    if not lanes:
+        return {"decisions": []}
+
+    decisions = autoscale_lanes_sync(lanes)
+    for d in decisions:
+        if d.action != "held":
+            log.info(
+                "autoscale: %s %s to %s slots — %s",
+                d.lane, d.action, d.slots, d.reason,
+            )
+    return {
+        "decisions": [
+            {"lane": d.lane, "action": d.action, "slots": d.slots,
+             "reason": d.reason}
+            for d in decisions
+        ],
+    }

frontend/src/components/settings/WorkerLanesCard.vue

@@ -37,6 +37,7 @@
             <th class="text-right">Pending</th>
             <th class="text-right">Busy</th>
             <th style="width: 200px;">Slots</th>
+            <th class="text-right">Auto</th>
             <th class="text-right">On</th>
           </tr>
         </thead>
@@ -62,6 +63,15 @@
               <div v-else-if="lane.live.replicas > 1" class="text-caption fc-muted">
                 {{ lane.live.replicas }} replicas
               </div>
+              <!-- The operator asked for a lane held at full for a long time
+                   to TRIGGER growth. It reports instead: extra slots do not
+                   make a long task finish sooner, so scaling on this would
+                   spend memory to change nothing. Seeing the lane is wedged
+                   on one slow job is the useful half, and it cannot mislead
+                   a lane into growing for the wrong reason. -->
+              <div v-if="laneStuckFor(lane)" class="text-caption text-warning">
+                all slots busy for {{ laneStuckFor(lane) }}
+              </div>
             </td>
 
             <td class="text-caption fc-muted">{{ lane.queues.join(', ') }}</td>
@@ -106,6 +116,31 @@
               </div>
             </td>
 
+            <!-- The autoscaler is the one control here that acts without
+                 being asked, so it is a separate switch from `On` rather than
+                 a mode folded into it, and it is off until someone opts this
+                 particular lane in.
+
+                 Turning it ON needs room to grow into; turning it OFF never
+                 does. Disabling the whole switch at cap == slots would strand
+                 an already-autoscaling lane as soon as someone raised its
+                 floor to the cap, with the control that would undo it greyed
+                 out. And the reason is on screen, for the same reason the
+                 ceiling justifies itself below: a greyed control with no
+                 explanation reads as a bug. -->
+            <td class="text-right">
+              <v-switch
+                :model-value="lane.autoscale"
+                density="compact" hide-details color="accent"
+                :disabled="busy === lane.name || (!lane.autoscale && !canGrow(lane))"
+                :aria-label="`Let ${lane.display_name} grow itself`"
+                @update:model-value="setAutoscale(lane, $event)"
+              />
+              <div v-if="!canGrow(lane)" class="text-caption fc-muted">
+                raise the cap
+              </div>
+            </td>
+
             <td class="text-right">
               <v-switch
                 :model-value="lane.enabled"
@@ -162,7 +197,7 @@
 <script setup>
 import { computed, ref } from 'vue'
 
-import { useSystemActivityStore } from '../../stores/systemActivity.js'
+import { laneStuckFor, useSystemActivityStore } from '../../stores/systemActivity.js'
 import { formatRelative } from '../../utils/date.js'
 import CardHeading from '../common/CardHeading.vue'
 
@@ -238,6 +273,17 @@ function step(lane, delta) {
 function toggle(lane, value) {
   return apply(lane, { enabled: Boolean(value) })
 }
+
+// Room to grow into. The autoscaler moves the LIVE pool, but the floor it
+// starts from is the stored value, so a lane whose floor already sits at its
+// cap has nowhere to go and enabling it would do nothing at all.
+function canGrow(lane) {
+  return lane.slots_cap > lane.slots
+}
+
+function setAutoscale(lane, value) {
+  return apply(lane, { autoscale: Boolean(value) })
+}
 </script>
 
 <style scoped>

frontend/src/stores/systemActivity.js

@@ -3,6 +3,29 @@ import { ref } from 'vue'
 
 import { useApi } from '../composables/useApi.js'
 
+// Both halves, never one (milestone 422 step 7). Saturation alone is a lane
+// doing its job; a long-running task alone may be the only thing on a lane
+// with slots to spare. Only together do they mean "nothing else on this lane
+// can start", which is the thing worth interrupting someone about.
+//
+// The operator asked for this to TRIGGER growth. It reports instead: a long
+// task does not finish sooner because the lane gained a slot, so autoscaling
+// on it would spend memory to change nothing. Exported rather than left in
+// the card so the AND is pinned by a test — a warning that fires on half the
+// condition is a warning people learn to ignore.
+export const LANE_STUCK_MINUTES = 15
+
+export function laneStuckFor(lane) {
+  const mins = lane?.oldest_running_minutes
+  if (mins === null || mins === undefined || mins < LANE_STUCK_MINUTES) return null
+  // Unknown is not busy: a lane nothing answered for has no live reading to
+  // call saturated, and `pool` of 0 or null is not a full pool.
+  if (!lane.live?.present || !lane.live.pool) return null
+  if (lane.live.active < lane.live.pool) return null
+  if (mins < 120) return `${mins} minutes`
+  return `${Math.floor(mins / 60)} hours`
+}
+
 export const useSystemActivityStore = defineStore('systemActivity', () => {
   const api = useApi()
 

frontend/test/workerLanes.spec.js

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { describe, it, expect, beforeEach, afterEach, vi } from 'vitest'
 import { setActivePinia, createPinia } from 'pinia'
-import { useSystemActivityStore } from '../src/stores/systemActivity.js'
+import { laneStuckFor, useSystemActivityStore } from '../src/stores/systemActivity.js'
 
 // Milestone 422 step 4. Covers the store half of the worker-lane dial — the
 // part that decides what the card can tell the operator.
@@ -139,3 +139,54 @@ describe('worker lanes store', () => {
     expect(err.body.detail).toContain('container can hold')
   })
 })
+
+// --- the long-running-task warning (step 7) ----------------------------------
+//
+// The operator asked for "a task runs for x concurrent time" to TRIGGER
+// growth. It became a warning: extra slots do not make a running task finish
+// sooner. What is pinned here is the AND — a warning that fires on half its
+// condition is one people learn to ignore, and at that point it is worse than
+// not having it.
+
+describe('laneStuckFor', () => {
+  const lane = (over = {}) => ({
+    oldest_running_minutes: 40,
+    live: { present: true, pool: 4, active: 4 },
+    ...over,
+  })
+
+  it('warns when every slot is busy and the oldest task is old', () => {
+    expect(laneStuckFor(lane())).toBe('40 minutes')
+  })
+
+  it('says nothing when the lane has a free slot', () => {
+    expect(laneStuckFor(lane({ live: { present: true, pool: 4, active: 3 } })))
+      .toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('says nothing for a saturated lane whose tasks are young', () => {
+    expect(laneStuckFor(lane({ oldest_running_minutes: 2 }))).toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('says nothing when nothing is running', () => {
+    expect(laneStuckFor(lane({ oldest_running_minutes: null }))).toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('says nothing about a lane that is not answering', () => {
+    // Unknown is not busy. A lane nothing answered for has no live reading to
+    // call saturated, and asserting one would be a verdict from an unswept
+    // read — the same distinction `present` exists for everywhere else here.
+    expect(laneStuckFor(lane({ live: { present: false, pool: null, active: 0 } })))
+      .toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('says nothing when the pool is zero', () => {
+    // A lane sized to zero is not "fully busy at zero" — it is off.
+    expect(laneStuckFor(lane({ live: { present: true, pool: 0, active: 0 } })))
+      .toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('switches to hours once minutes stop being readable', () => {
+    expect(laneStuckFor(lane({ oldest_running_minutes: 195 }))).toBe('3 hours')
+  })
+})

tests/test_worker_control.py

@@ -321,3 +321,245 @@ def test_the_reconcile_task_is_registered_and_scheduled():
     assert name in celery.tasks
     scheduled = {e["task"] for e in celery.conf.beat_schedule.values()}
     assert name in scheduled
+
+
+# --- the autoscaler (step 7) --------------------------------------------------
+#
+# Every case below fixes the LIVE pool and the stored floor to DIFFERENT
+# numbers wherever it can. That is deliberate: the first version of this
+# function read the stored value as the current one, and with the two equal
+# — which is what a single tick of a settled system looks like — every test
+# here still passed while the autoscaler could not grow past floor+1 or shrink
+# at all. Equal fixtures cannot see that bug.
+
+
+def _autoscale_live(
+    monkeypatch, *, pools, active, reserved, depth, present=True,
+):
+    state = wc.LaneLiveState(
+        present=present,
+        replicas=len(pools),
+        hostnames=sorted(pools),
+        pools=dict(pools),
+        active=active,
+        reserved=reserved,
+        consuming=set(LANES_BY_NAME["worker"].queues),
+    )
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        wc, "inspect_lanes_sync",
+        lambda: {name: (state if name == "worker" else wc.LaneLiveState())
+                 for name in LANES_BY_NAME},
+    )
+    monkeypatch.setattr(
+        wc, "_queue_depths_sync",
+        lambda: {q: depth for lane in LANES_BY_NAME.values() for q in lane.queues},
+    )
+    return state
+
+
+def _worker(decisions):
+    return next(d for d in decisions if d.lane == "worker")
+
+
+def test_a_prefetched_backlog_still_triggers_growth(monkeypatch):
+    """THE case an LLEN-only implementation misses, and the reason `reserved`
+    was plumbed through in step 2. Celery prefetches, so a lane can read queue
+    depth 0 while holding thirty tasks in worker memory — an autoscaler
+    watching LLEN alone sees an idle system and never grows."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 2}, active=2, reserved=30, depth=0)
+
+    d = _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)}))
+
+    assert d.action == "grew"
+    assert d.slots == 3
+    assert control.grew == [(1, ["host-a"])]
+
+
+def test_it_keeps_climbing_past_the_floor_on_later_ticks(monkeypatch):
+    """The regression test for reading the stored value as the current one.
+
+    The row still says 2 — the autoscaler never writes it — but the live pool
+    is already 5 from earlier ticks. The target must be 6. Computing from the
+    stored 2 would propose 3, which resizes nothing (the replica is past it),
+    reports success, and pins the lane one slot above its floor forever while
+    claiming to grow on every tick."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 5}, active=5, reserved=40, depth=0)
+
+    d = _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)}))
+
+    assert d.slots == 6
+    assert control.grew == [(1, ["host-a"])]
+
+
+def test_backlog_with_free_slots_does_nothing(monkeypatch):
+    """Depth alone is not a signal — celery is about to pick those up, and
+    growing would add children that idle."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 8}, active=1, reserved=0, depth=50)
+
+    assert _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)})).action == "held"
+    assert control.grew == []
+
+
+def test_saturation_is_measured_against_every_replica(monkeypatch):
+    """`active` is summed across replicas and `pool` is one replica's size, so
+    comparing them calls two half-busy replicas of 4 saturated at 4 active.
+    Capacity is 8 here and 4 tasks are running: half the lane is idle."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(
+        monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 4, "host-b": 4},
+        active=4, reserved=40, depth=0,
+    )
+
+    assert _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)})).action == "held"
+    assert control.grew == []
+
+
+def test_a_saturated_lane_with_no_backlog_does_nothing(monkeypatch):
+    """The long-running-task case. One slow task holding every slot with an
+    empty queue needs no extra slots — growing does not make it finish sooner,
+    which is why the operator's 'runs for x time' idea became a UI warning
+    rather than a trigger."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 2}, active=2, reserved=0, depth=0)
+
+    assert _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)})).action == "held"
+    assert control.grew == []
+
+
+def test_growth_stops_at_the_cap_and_says_so(monkeypatch):
+    """The autoscaler gets no authority the operator does not already have.
+    And it SAYS it is capped — that is the moment they would want to know they
+    set one."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 4}, active=4, reserved=99, depth=0)
+
+    d = _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (4, 2, True)}))
+
+    assert d.action == "held"
+    assert "cap is 4" in d.reason
+    assert control.grew == []
+
+
+def test_a_cleared_backlog_returns_the_lane_to_the_operator_s_value(monkeypatch):
+    """Down toward `configured`, one step at a time."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 5}, active=0, reserved=0, depth=0)
+
+    d = _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)}))
+
+    assert d.action == "shrank"
+    assert d.slots == 4
+    assert control.shrank == [(1, ["host-a"])]
+
+
+def test_it_never_shrinks_below_what_the_operator_set(monkeypatch):
+    """The stored value is the operator's and the autoscaler must not eat it —
+    there would be nothing left to restore to."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 2}, active=0, reserved=0, depth=0)
+
+    assert _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)})).action == "held"
+    assert control.shrank == []
+
+
+def test_hysteresis_keeps_a_middling_backlog_from_flapping(monkeypatch):
+    """Between the two thresholds nothing happens. Equal thresholds would grow
+    and shrink the lane forever as one task arrives and leaves — lesson
+    #4183's churn arriving through a different door."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 5}, active=5, reserved=5, depth=0)
+
+    assert _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)})).action == "held"
+    assert control.grew == []
+    assert control.shrank == []
+
+
+def test_a_lane_that_did_not_opt_in_is_never_touched(monkeypatch):
+    """Off by default, per lane. This is the only sweep that decides rather
+    than obeys, so it acts only where someone said it may — and it does not
+    even report on a lane it was not given."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 2}, active=2, reserved=99, depth=0)
+
+    assert wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, False)}) == []
+    assert control.grew == []
+
+
+def test_an_absent_lane_holds_rather_than_guessing(monkeypatch):
+    """`present=False` is 'nothing answered', not 'idle'. Deciding from an
+    unswept read is snippet #3969's shape."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(
+        monkeypatch, pools={}, active=0, reserved=0, depth=0, present=False,
+    )
+
+    d = _worker(wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)}))
+
+    assert d.action == "held"
+    assert "not answering" in d.reason
+    assert control.grew == []
+
+
+def test_a_settled_lane_sends_no_control_messages(monkeypatch):
+    """The fixed point, asserted as a property rather than inferred from the
+    reported action: this runs every minute forever, so a settled system has
+    to be silent or a real correction drowns in the heartbeat."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _autoscale_live(monkeypatch, pools={"host-a": 2}, active=1, reserved=0, depth=1)
+
+    for _ in range(5):
+        assert _worker(
+            wc.autoscale_lanes_sync({"worker": (8, 2, True)})
+        ).action == "held"
+    assert control.grew == []
+    assert control.shrank == []
+
+
+# --- the two sweeps must not fight -------------------------------------------
+
+
+def test_the_reconcile_does_not_undo_what_the_autoscaler_added(monkeypatch):
+    """Otherwise the two would fight every five minutes: grow, revert, grow,
+    revert. For an autoscaling lane the stored slots are a FLOOR."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _stub_live(monkeypatch, "worker", pools={"host-a": 6})
+
+    wc.reconcile_lanes_sync({"worker": (2, True)}, frozenset({"worker"}))
+
+    assert control.shrank == []
+
+
+def test_the_reconcile_still_restores_an_autoscaling_lane_that_fell_below(
+    monkeypatch,
+):
+    """A floor is still a floor. A restart drops the lane to its env value and
+    this must bring it back to what the operator set."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _stub_live(monkeypatch, "worker", pools={"host-a": 1})
+
+    wc.reconcile_lanes_sync({"worker": (4, True)}, frozenset({"worker"}))
+
+    assert control.grew == [(3, ["host-a"])]
+
+
+def test_a_non_autoscaling_lane_is_still_driven_down_to_its_value(monkeypatch):
+    """The floor applies only to lanes that opted in — otherwise turning
+    autoscale off would leave the lane stuck at whatever it had grown to."""
+    control = _stub_control(monkeypatch)
+    _stub_live(monkeypatch, "worker", pools={"host-a": 6})
+
+    wc.reconcile_lanes_sync({"worker": (2, True)}, frozenset())
+
+    assert control.shrank == [(4, ["host-a"])]
+
+
+def test_the_autoscale_task_is_registered_and_scheduled():
+    import backend.app.tasks.maintenance  # noqa: F401
+    from backend.app.celery_app import celery
+
+    name = "backend.app.tasks.maintenance.autoscale_worker_lanes"
+    assert name in celery.tasks
+    assert name in {e["task"] for e in celery.conf.beat_schedule.values()}