fix: dead external links are retried sparingly, not three times a day

The daily recovery reset every dead link to a fresh three-attempt budget,
so a link that can never succeed (an archive too big to import inside the
fetch's hard limit, a file made private) was downloaded up to three times a
day, every day.

Recovery now gives a dead link one more attempt once it has been dead for
2**recoveries days (1, 2, 4, 8, 16), and stops after five. A recovered link
that fails again goes straight back to dead. Retention prunes only links
recovery has given up on, 30 days after their last attempt. A manual refetch
of a post restores the full budgets.

Migration 0118 adds external_link.recoveries.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

alembic/versions/0118_external_link_recoveries.py

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+"""external_link.recoveries: how many times recovery has retried a dead link.
+
+The daily recovery gives a dead link one more attempt, spaced further apart
+each time, and leaves it dead once the count reaches its limit. A link that
+can never succeed is then downloaded a handful of times in total, not every
+day.
+
+Revision ID: 0118
+Revises: 0117
+Create Date: 2026-11-05
+
+"""
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+from alembic import op
+
+revision = "0118"
+down_revision = "0117"
+branch_labels = None
+depends_on = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.add_column(
+        "external_link",
+        sa.Column(
+            "recoveries", sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default=sa.text("0")
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_column("external_link", "recoveries")